Just under the wire the Redistricting Commission have submitted their final Congressional and legislative maps. Now it goes to the legislature to basically rubber stamp it. So, I’d like to take this moment to add a few thoughts to N in Seattle’s post from the other day.
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Congress:
- Even if Adam Smith is safe electorally, a majority minority district may force him to hire a more diverse staff (I have no idea what his staff looks like now) and recommend more non-white people to military academies. Members of Congress take their duty to represent their district very seriously, and do a lot of behind the scenes constituent service things that might have more of an immediate impact.
- While you still have to give the advantage to McMorris Rodgers in any race, her district has probably got a bit more liberal. Since she won every county against Don Barbieri and against Peter Goldmark, she’s probably safe, but the right candidate, a bit of luck, and maybe the right timing, I wouldn’t put it past a Democrat in that seat (but hope springs eternal with me).
- The 32nd and 46th seem to look quite bit different from how they’re currently drawn with the 32nd going pretty far North and the 46th going over Lake Washington and pretty far down. The rest of the Seattle area districts look pretty much the same to me on first glance, although I’m sure having typed that, someone in the comments will point out some glaring change.
- The 15th LD becomes the first majority Hispanic district in the state. At 54.52% of the population (as opposed to the % of voters), I don’t know if that’s enough to organize a majority of voters, but I suspect the Democrats will be aggressive in organizing there.
Legislature:
It’s almost 12:30, so I’m going to bed.
I seem to have made the same I’m going to bed joke as Goldy:
http://slog.thestranger.com/sl.....ine-barely
And the new first?
I suppose Darcy might win if DelBene chooses not to run, but she would be an oh so tempting morsel for a well financed (Medina funded) Republican. Every review I read says the first will be a swing district.
As for Adam Smith, he will win, but this gerrymandered effort to craft a People of Color District combining Bellevue, Mercer Island, the CD, Renton and SeaTac is nuts. What sort of idiot can not tell an Ethiopean from an Alabaman? Imagine campaigning at Stopsky’s Pretentious Deli in the AM and at a rally with pissed of parents (Black that is) at Rainier Beach?
Far more interesting than skin color, is the weird economic mismatch between Mercer Island and Rainier Beach.
Of course the real beneficiary is Reichert who now has a snow white district, with a big mountain to backdrop his role aa a western sheriff. Gidyap!
Looks like the 3rd LD survived intact, which is good news. Did the 6th LD shrink a little bit? That would probably help Democrats a little.
Big ups to N. In Seattle for doing yeoman’s work on this.
Michael, WA-03 extends farther east than it used to, taking in Kittitas County. And of course it lost the northerly extension that took it into Olympia. It’s going to be tough sledding for a Democrat.
The 6th lost territory to build WA-10. So did the 9th, though it gained some back by moving into the Eastside.
WA-08 spilling over the mountains looks like the biggest change, but a bigger (and more consequential) change is in WA-01 and WA-02. In essence, Rick Larsen’s old CD (except for Bellingham and the San Juans, its most Democratic portions) is now WA-01, and Larsen holds much of what had been Jay Inslee’s. In addition, Slade Gorton moved John Koster out of Larsen’s now-safe district and into the less-Democratic, incumbentless 1st.
I’m coming around to the belief that Ceis really got snookered up north. Especially after using Dave’s Redistricting App (written by Seattle’s own Dave Bradlee). Within about an hour of firing it up, I built a WA-02 that still included all of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. My WA-01 added Brier, Mountlake Terrace, and Lynnwood at its southwestern edge, along with some other small changes. Basically, I-5 divided the two districts in Snohomish County.
Both of my districts were “lean Democratic”, instead of being one strong D and one tossup. IOW, two competitive CDs instead of one. And two districts that make much more sense in terms of shared community interests and geographic compactness.
You’re talking CD’s I was talking LD’s.
@4
Bottom line, Darcy has a large hurdle to cross even if DelBene stays out.
The “new” CD 1 seems built for twp things:
1. future growth. Someone must be assuming that the rural areas north of Redmond will suburbanize.
2. Reichert and Larsen have been given baronial status. I suspect their districts are now hereditary.
3.The first is intended to swing, probably to the right given its mix of wealthy suburbanites and religious right rural repricans.
Darcy’s progressivism, seems like a poor recipe for this district. She may be OK with some affluent Redmond/Medina liberals but anyone who thinks Microsoft/Nintendo executives are labor democrats has been smoking too much weed.
The ideal candidate to get elected and secure that district needs to be a business oriented democrat. Likely, this person ought also not to be terribly up tight about issues like lat term abortion, use of drones in warfare, God in the schools or the divinity of Ronald Reagan. He or she, ideally, will ALSO have a sanding record either as a politician or as a high level executive in some local enterprise … Microsoft, a business group (e.g. Washington Roundtable), a university. the Seahawks, Mariners, etc. etc.
That description does not fit Darcy Burner.
The 6th is now Lakeside, Medical Lake, Airway Heights, Fairchild, and Cheney. That’s going to be reliably Republican for forever.
@8
Well, shit…
Government check central.
Goodbye to the 8th district, hello 9th… Glad Dave Reichert will no longer be my Representative. It is a weird change they are making with regard to what was the 8th district, but I will give it a chance. Though, just because Dave’s 8th district will be moving doesn’t mean that my new Rep. will be any better. But there is hope.