So much to drink, so little time tonight, as I try to split my evening between two locations. The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight (and every Tuesday), 8PM onward at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E., and I’ll be stopping by a little early to chat with the regulars and watch the initial returns. Then I’ll be heading East to join Darcy Burner at The Mustard Seed, 5608 119th Ave SE, Bellevue, for her election night party… and you’re all invited to join us in cheering her on to November.
Not in Seattle? Liberals will also be drinking tonight in the Tri-Cities. A full listing of Washington’s thirteen Drinking Liberally chapters is available here.
Sooooo Goldy..
Sounds like drinking & driving for you tonite.
M.A.D.D. will be staking you out tonite.
Kitsap County is the first to report. 48.73% Gregoire and 45.54% Rossi. In November 2004, Kitsap went 49.34% Rossi and 48.01% Gregoire.
Lewis County is also in — propelling Rossi to an early statewide lead. 61.84% Rossi to 32.55% Gregoire. In November 2004, Lewis County went 65.45% Rossi to 32.17% Gregoire.
Shocker of the night — Spokane County: 47.74% Gregoire to 44.68% Rossi. In November 2004, Spokane County went 52.78% Rossi to 45.28% Gregoire. This is a swing of over 10 points to Gregoire in Spokane County.
Just remember — the mail ballot counties (all 37 other than King and Pierce) will only post their results once tonight. They take their computer totals sometime after 8:00 p.m., go home for the evening, and come back to start counting again tomorrow morning.
Richard–
Why aren’t you comparing the 2004 PRIMARY results with the 2008 Primary results???
Richard–
Also, why aren’t you disclosing the number of votes??
In the 2004 Governor’s Primary….
770,000 voted Dem
522,000 voted Rep.
Interesting, huh?
We all know how it turned out in November.
Mr. Cynical @ 8
They were casting party ballots. Probably at least 100,000 Republicans voted in the Democratic primary, because there were no really meaningful Republican races, and they were interested in the Gregoire-Sims contest. Most Republicans voted for Gregoire in the primary, as the lesser of two evils (as they saw it), then of course voted for Rossi in the general election.
Mr. Cynical @6 – Comparing the Gov race to November makes sense because in the 2004 primary you had a contested race for the Democratic position between Sims and Gregoire. November gave us the head to head that this result best compares with, so Richard is right to focus on those numbers.
Mr. Cynical,
Looks like your boy BIAW attorney Tim Ford is getting his ASS kicked for Court of Appeals — Robin Hunt is winning by 65.02% to 34.98%. Even Jeanette Burrage did a helluva lot better than this in her numerous races.
Mixed results in the 8th CD. Reichert is ahead of Burner by 47.27% to 44.27%, with initial results from both King and Pierce Counties in. However, 5.76% voted for one of the two other avowed Democrats. And also 2.69% for one of the two independent candidates (whatever that means).
Certainly no mandate for Reichert, and Burner has some work to do in solidifying the anti-Reichert vote.
The Rossi strongholds have a far higher counted ballot turnout to date, than the Gregoire strongholds. For example, King County has only 12.63% counted, versus 21.59% statewide. Expect Gregoire’s margin — currently 48.32% to 45.75% — to widen to at least a five point lead in the coming days, as all the ballots are counted.
I predict that turnout will be more like 2006 Primary numbers (39%) than 2004 Primary numbers (45%). Sam Reed’s new format will top out at no higher than 41% IMO.
This is by Jack Cafferty:
George Bush’s record as a student, military man, businessman and leader of the free world is one of constant failure. And the part that troubles me most is he seems content with himself.
He will leave office with the country $10 trillion in debt, fighting two wars, our international reputation in shambles, our government cloaked in secrecy and suspicion that his entire presidency has been a litany of broken laws and promises, our citizens’ faith in our own country ripped to shreds. Yet Bush goes bumbling along, grinning and spewing moronic one-liners, as though nobody understands what a colossal failure he has been.
I fear to the depth of my being that John McCain is just like him.
Richard Pope spews:
“Probably at least 100,000 Republicans voted in the Democratic primary,”
Where do you get that # from Richard???
Over 2.8 million ballots were cast in the November, 2004 Governor’s Race.
Richard, I’ll bet you the November results are closer than the Primary results.
Trying to predict the November results from these Primary results is a waste of time.
Mr. Cynical @17:
That remains to be seen.
Monday’s Rasmussen #’s–
Monday, August 18, 2008
John McCain has recaptured the lead over Barack Obama in Florida, besting his Democratic opponent 46% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
Daniel K–
You are right…
There are some pretty interesting forecast models out there…combining this Primary with Polling of likely voters. The key is how representative of the November turnout is this Primary?? You need to also know the demographics of WHO voted in this Primary too…to compare with likely November voters.
Not as simple as some simpleton KLOWNS would think.
Darryl is capable of understanding this…if he could push his fatass away from the free food table and explain it to you.
Mr. Cynical @20 – The thinking is that an older voter turnout today than will on average in November, and that younger voters will be drawn to Burner, Obama, and Gregoire.
There should also be a lot more voters this year than in 2004 or 2006. Registration is up from those years. Indications are Democrats should get a few more of those voters come November.
I suspect most Primary voters will be voting in November. Many others stayed away simply because the results were foregone conclusions in most cases.
Thanks Richard Pope.
I’ve been too busy to even turn on the TV tonight.
Well, the good news is that Norm Dicks is leading Doug Cloud 19,711 to 8,256 in Pierce County. The bad news is that we didn’t manage to knock the Republican out of the race.
Or maybe that’s good news as this we get to embarrass the hell out of the Republicans again in the fall.
@20
In November a higher percentage of younger people are going to be voting. Also a much higher percentage of King County and Pierce County. And yes, more Democrats will be voting.
Gregoire won several counties that she lost four years ago. The numbers look bleaker for Rossi now.
Hey, goodluck. I hope Republicans keep believing that the results of tonight mean nothing. You guys can continue your course over the cliff.
I believe Goldmark and McIntire will win as well.
Ladenberg has a long shot chance as well.
Burner and Reichert will again be a nail biter.
Go Dawn Morrell!!!
Tonight Gregoire won the following counties where she lost in 2004 (as of now):
1. Asotin
2. Clark
3. Island
4. Kitsap
5. Mason
6. Pierce
7. Skagit
8. Snohomish
9. Spokane
Tonight Rossi won the following counties where he lost in 2004:
None
Four of the nine counties she won are big, with over 200,000 or more voters.
Bad night for cowardly republicans all around.
And by the way – rasmussen is a republican pollster. Most legitimate polls still have President Obama up 2-4 points.
I just typed everything into an Excel spreadsheet. If the numbers in each county are adjusted to reflect the same turnout percentage in each county, then Gregoire beats Rossi by 50.49% to 43.97%, with 5.54% going to other candidates.
This is somewhat worse of an ass-kicking than the 49.21% to 45.02% margin for Gregoire shown by the ballots counted so far.
It is possible that the overall primary returns, when all ballots are counted, will still show greater turnout in pro-Rossi counties, as compared to pro-Gregoire counties. However, in the general election, turnout should be almost equally high in all counties.
Also interesting — almost everyone who took a ballot voted for Governor. The statewide undervote (or otherwise invalid vote) for Governor was only 0.80%. This would have included undervotes, overvotes, and presumably write-in votes as well. (King County had, for example, 124 write-in votes shown on the county elections website, or 0.07% of ballots cast, that are not reflected on the SoS website.)
We Democrats are kicking ass!
How on Earth is having Norm Dicks winning a good thing? I mean assuming you’d like the US to start disarming and not spending as much as the rest of the world combined on war weapons.
Most legitimate polls still have President Obama up 2-4 points.
——————-
Only one of the polls below has Obama up by 2-4 points. This is the tightest it’s been in months.
Average Obama +1.2
LA Times/Bloomberg Obama +2
Reuters/Zogby McCain +5
Rasmussen Tracking Obama +1
Gallup Tracking Obama +1
Quinnipiac Obama +5
Battleground McCain +1
IBD/TIPP Obama +5
According to the LA Times poll:
“John McCain has begun rallying dispirited Republicans behind him, while Democratic rival Barack Obama has made scant progress building new support, leaving the presidential race statistically tied, according to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll.
“The survey highlights Obama’s vulnerability on the question of his readiness to lead the nation. Less than half of the registered voters polled think the first-term Illinois senator has the “right” experience to be president, while 80% believe McCain, a four-term senator, does.”
Personally, I’m surprised Gregoire is leading in the primary count. As I said yesterday, Rossi’s supporters had a lot more reason to turn out in big numbers. If he had led in the primary, they would have trumpeted the results as proof that the 2004 election was “stolen” from him. Gregoire’s supporters, on the other hand, had no big reason to turn out. There was no question she was going to be in the “top two”, and that’s all that mattered to them.
But I do have my doubts about this primary as being representative of anything regarding the general election. Mid-August is a strange time to be holding an election – half of my e-mails at work are being returned with “Out of office – on vacation” notices. Potential voters have been distracted by the Olympics. Even I was suprised by some of the choices on my ballot, and had to do some research on some of the smaller races to figure out who was who.
And considering that people didn’t even have to mail their ballots until yesterday, how can we even rely upon the numbers at this point?
I think the low turnout at the polling station proves that if you are going to have an August primary, you need to make it mail-only. Although I also like going to the polls to vote (something I can no longer do, being a resident of Snohomish County), the people have overwhelmingly elected to vote by mail. Keeping a dual system is just inefficient.
31: I think Obama’s going to start pulling further ahead in the polls. McCain’s been trying to gain ground by portraying Obama as an “unkown quantity”, as the campaing progresses that’s not going to work.
I’ve also got serious doubts about the accuracy of traditional sampling in this election. I don’t think it accurately depicts the strength of Obama’s support among young voters (who primarily have cell phones – not land lines – and therefore aren’t included in polling).
But more importantly, check the electoral vote map. Obama is comfortably in the lead in every state Gore carried in 2000, and Kerry carried in 2004. McCain is not going to make any inroads there. To win, Obama only needs one major state, or a handful of minor ones. It looks like Florida and Virginia are seriously in play, either one of which wins the election for Obama.
Sure, Obama could stumble in the coming months, and McCain could run a perfect campaign, which might make it close. And I’m not ruling out an October surprise manipulated by the White House. But the current trend looks pretty good for an Obama victory in November.
33 – More people are sticking close to home. High gas prices, uncertain economy. This worsening state of things is energizing political involvement – against the people who made the mess.
The Republicans.
@35 YourLiberalBullshit:
Yep, it’s easy for you to stay home, you know–being unemployed and having no purpose in society.
Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency. Pastor Warren and John McCain’s transcript:
WARREN: My first question, was the cone of silence comfortable you were in just now?
MCCAIN: I was trying to hear through the wall.
Jesus Christ, McCain lied to the Pastor right off the bat.
Where’s the fucking moral majority?
No principles?
The mother fucker was not even in the building for the first half of Barack’s interview.
StraightShit Talk Express: ARRIVING!!!Where’s Bill-O’s outrage that a presidential candidate is LYING to a pastor on national television??
Must’ve been loufa time.