While Jon focused solely on the WA-03 money race, Publicola brings us the numbers from WA-08, where Republican incumbent Dave Reichert reportedly raised about $350,000 in the first quarter and is sitting on about $700,000, while Democratic challenger Suzan DelBene raised $225,000 in the quarter for $840,000 cash on hand.
But in attempting to clarify these numbers, Publicola only muddles things up:
Footnote on DelBene: She spent $160,000 this quarter and has almost $400,000 in liabilities, which means she actually has about $460,000 in cash after having raised $920,000 overall. Reichert, who’s raised about $1 million overall, has over $700,000 in cash after liabilities.
Yeah, well, not really. DelBene’s “almost $400,000 in liabilities” largely refers to a $350,000 personal loan. From a financial strength perspective, whether she pays herself back or not really isn’t an issue as long as she doesn’t pay herself back until after the election.
Reichert, although lacking the resources to self-finance, similarly benefits from loans of a sort, routinely spending his campaign hundreds of thousands of dollars into debt, which he eventually pays off with money raised for the next campaign. That’s why, while raising over $1.3 million this cycle (not the “$920,000” total Publicola reports), Reichert only has $715,000 cash on hand; most of the rest of the money went to paying off last election’s debt.
So an apple to apple comparison does indeed show that DelBene currently enjoys an $839K to $715K cash on hand advantage over the incumbent. As for fundraising strength and enthusiasm, yes, DelBene’s totals are inflated by about $534K in self-financing, but that’s roughly equivalent to Reichert’s advantage in big money contributions from PACs. Overall, Reichert has raised only slightly more in individual contributions, while DelBene enjoys more individual contributors.
In other words, it looks like Reichert is facing yet another competitive challenger, as opposed to our state delegation’s other seven incumbents, who by comparison, all currently enjoy a better than five to one money advantage over their closest opponent.
As much as I’d love to see Hair Spray Dave defeated, the history of the WA-08 district proves favorable for Republican’s to hold this seat in 2010.
The demography of the district hasn’t shifted that greatly and there is no serious Tea Party candidate that will split the conservative voting block.
Not to say that Dave Ross and Darcy Burner didn’t give Hair Spray a run for his money, nor should the seat go without a serious and competitive challenge to drain RNC & RCCC funds to defend this seat, but the results cannot be argued with.
GBS prediction; Reichert holds this seat in 2010 by a 5-7% margin.
Well, the mantle has been passed from DumbDarcy to DumbDelBene. Rotsa ruck!
You may be right, GBS. But the NRCC’s every-two-years money pit that is Dave Reichert has taken up a whole lot of cash that could have gone into other races. It’s a pile of cash that they never needed to send out here while Jennifer Dunn was in office … even as the district became more and more Democratic overall.
If the NRCC ever decides to let Reichert stand on his own two feet, he’ll soon be a double-dipping (King County and federal) pensioner.
Gee Goldy. Nothing about the teabagger rallies the other day?
I know they’re an easy target but it’s still fun verbally smacking then around.
N in Seattle @ 3:
I would agree with your assessment that if the NRCC is unwilling or unable to fund Reichert then it’s a 50/50 chance of him winning. The difficulty I see in that happening is if they are trying to pick up Democratic seats they would be more inclined to defend a longstanding Republican seat first. Otherwise, it may be more costly to pick up a Democeratic seat elsewhere than defend a reliable Republcian seat. Particularly if the net result of doing so is zero net gain in House seats for the GOP.
I dunno, I can only say I’ve been wrong about this seat 3 cycles running. Particularly, during the blue tsunami of the past two elections. So based on that trend I’ll say it’s a highly competitive seat with the edge going to Reichert.
GBS @5,
No doubt the edge goes to Reichert, as it did during the past two election cycles. In fact, for all my Darcy boosting, I don’t think I ever suggested otherwise.
But with Reichert facing another competitive challenger it’s no sure thing, and yet another NRCC money pit for the fourth straight cycle.
So based on that trend I’ll say it’s a highly competitive seat with the edge going to Reichert.
Yes, Ditzy Dave 401 has the advantage, but N is right. Make the bastards defend it, and it’s money they can’t spend somewhere else. And, who knows, the good guys might get lucky. Stranger things have happened.
@1) GBS
That was essentially the line on Darcy last election cycle, and Darcy would have won by 5% if not for the econ degree calamity.
Reichert’s numbers are the lowest they’ve ever been, and the anti-incumbency sentiments apply to Republicans as well as Democrats.
DelBene is in many ways a better candidate than Darcy was. She will have more appeal to moderates and independents.
And the District has continued to trend favorably for Democrats, although I agree it hasn’t shifted “greatly”, but then, it didn’t need to.
One thing is for sure, it will be a close one. This is like a basketball game between teams that are fairly evenly matched. The team that wants it the most, that hustles more and keeps up the pressure and intensity from start to finish will pull it out in the end.
I like DelBene’s chances.
Get in the game, people. With your help, Suzan can win this!
One more thing:
Suzan will be a at a reception for DNC Chair Governor Tim Kaine on Tuesday, 4:30 – 6:00 at the Columbia Tower Club.
For a measly $150 donation (goes to OFA, I think), you can rub elbows with two governors (Gregoire & Kaine), and have a personal, one-on-one conversation with Suzan DelBene.
This is the bargain schmooze event of the campaign season.
REGISTER HERE
I recall an article a few years back which said that the odds of removing a sitting house member are enormously high – they have a re-election rate at somewhere near 85% or 90% (I’ve forgotten the exact percentages). The value of incumbency is too great – guaranteed name recognition, franking priviledge, the ability to garner local press simply by making a speach or showing up at a ribbon-cutting, etc.
And I don’t doubt that if this were any other election cycle, the RNC (and it’s various other committees) would rather make sure an incumbent Republican keeps his seat, rather than fund an iffy chance at flipping a Democratic seat, given those percentages.
But this isn’t a normal election cycle. The Republicans currently have so little money in their committee coffers that they are going to have to make some hard choices. Do they go for the “open” seats, or do they pour more money (again) into the WA8th? They likely will not be able to do both, at least not in the amounts required to do any good.
Since Reichart has been a perpetual drain on party resources, I can just imagine the discussions in Washington about how useless he is, and how they are just “enabling” him by throwing money in his direction each election cycle. As a three-term Congressman, he should be raising money for other candidates by now, not taking money away from them! They probably feel like the sister-in-law who keeps borrowing money for one “emergency” after another – at some point they will want to cut off the taps, if for no other reason than to force him to stand on his own two feet.
Moreover, as an incumbent, Reichart hasn’t done much to take advantage of the advantages. At best, he issues a couple of press releases and co-sponsors some minor legislation just before Congress recesses for the summer break, which seldom gets out of committee unless it’s also taken on by the state’s Democratic lawmakers as well (expanding federal wilderness areas, etc.). The best that can be said about him is that he’s a chair-warmer and a reliable vote for the Republicans when they really need it, but he hasn’t done much more than that.
So it will be interesting to see how Reichart does in an election where he can’t flood the airwaves with ads in the final run-up to the election.
Goldy @ 6:
I didn’t mean to imply you gave Darcy the edge previously.
I sure as hell did give Darcy the edge and it’s been one of the few elections predictions that I’ve underestimated.
I’m with the conventional wisdom so far that we need to hustle like never before because we just might win it, the WA-08 is slightly trending Democrat, anti incumbent fever is high, and if we don’t win this seat having the NRCC pour money here is like us donating dollar for dollar to other competitive districts the GOP couldn’t otherwise invest thier money in more wisely.
Exactly! Not only a money pit, but a money pit to get one of their least effective congressmen re-elected.
Of course, one of Reichart’s advantages is that, with the help of the Seattle Times, he has been able to position himself as a “moderate Republican”. But this last year he hasn’t been able to avoid the party-line votes which reveal him to be the reliable Republican errand-boy on the big issues. How would WA8th voters react to a commercial showing him voting with the health insurance companies against health care reform, with wall street on financial reform, etc.?
He’s a fiercely moderately independent Republican who depends upon his betters to tell him how to vote and what to think.
If he had the courage of his convictions, he’d buy his own health insurance on the free market. Fat chance of that, though.
We need some federal campaign finance reform. A campaign should not be allowed to spend itself into debt by several hundred thousand dollars, as Reichert did during the last election cycle. Effectively, Reichert gets to double-dip on campaign finance limits, by raising money in the current election cycle to pay for the last election cycle. And Reichert’s vendors are basically making huge loans to him, which otherwise would exceed campaign limits.
Also, most federal campaign committees tend to be legally incorporated as separate entities, unlike most state campaign committees (which usually are simply doing business legally in the name of the candidate). So unless Reichert personally guarantees his campaign debts, his vendors are effectively making a gift if they never get paid and Reichert loses the election and nobody wants to donate to him again.
Same principle with DelBene, although her practices clearly comply with the letter of the law. If DelBene were running for state office, she could also “lend” her campaign unlimited money, but would be able to pay herself back only several thousand dollars, rather than the full amount. But under federal law, a candidate can lend millions to their own campaign, and pay it all back later when donors give money (especially after the candidate wins the election!).
In 2008, Obama (D) beat McCain (R) in WA-08 by 15%, In 2008, Reichert (R) beat the Darcy (D) by 5%. Can you say CROSSOVER VOTERS?
Reichert appeals to WA-08 voters in both parties – he did during the blue wave in 2008 and he will again during the upcoming red wave in 2010.
Goldy, you and your minions are smokin’ something if you think del Benzene has a chance. Hell, it’ll cost her at least $1m just to buy name recognition.
Reichert by 9 points…..
@16: DelBene is much more of an Obama pragmatist than she is a fire-breathing ideologue like Darcy.
If she can get her message out, she will have much broader appeal. Also, many of the moderate Reichert voters are underwhelmed by his lack of accomplishment and are quite willing to give DelBene a shot.
This isn’t just my opinion. This is what the campaign has found when they have talked to moderates and independents that formerly voted for Reichert.
Darcy ran an anti-war campaign, DelBene is running a jobs creation campaign. Big difference. And remember, Darcy had it won, but fumbled the ball as she was going in for the winning score.
@16
Reichert’s win/win for us. If DelBene wins we get the seat. If Reichert wins it’s because the RNC thew all sorts of cash and help behind Reichert’s campaign. It’s a zero sum game; if that money is going to Reichert, then it isn’t being used to unseat Democrats and the RNC will be throwing that money into a campaign for one of its weakest links. I like those odds.
@16
Reichert’s win/win for us. If DelBene wins we get the seat. If Reichert wins it’s because the RNC thew all sorts of cash and help behind Reichert’s campaign. It’s a zero sum game; if that money and help is going to Reichert, then it isn’t being used to unseat Democrats and the RNC will be throwing that money into a campaign for one of its weakest links. I like those odds.
Dave’s a bit too liberal for most of us, but when its a referendum on the future of America (do we want to let Obama take us down the Argentina path, or aim higher…) Dave will beat del Bene.
How many trillions of deficits are too much for you guys?
I paraphrase Larry Kudlow, that lefty economist. Debt is merely a tool of finance. Finance good things, it’s a good tool.
According to Kudlow, the Reagan deficits financed the end of the Cold War and other things.
Obama’s deficits are designed to finance us out of the mistakes of the Bush regime.
If he succeeds and we’re back on a decent economic growth track, then it’s money well spent.
So whatever it takes to reach full employment, get us out of two miserable, costly theatres of combat and make long needed overdue investments in health, education and infrastructure.
dumb ….Bush let the mortgage thing hit, yea, but nothing obama is spnding on will fix any bush propblems; he’s just pissing away our future on cronies and unions. argentina baby.
@ 21 Monday well spent?? The nearly TRILLION dollar “stimulus” package that Obama said would prevent us from rising above 8% unemployment? You must be insane.
Sarge @17. Obama pragmatist?? Isn’t that an oxymoron? I pray del Benzene runs on Obama’s coattails. If she does, I raise my Reichert margin of victory prediction to 10+
How did that coattail thing work for Corzine in New Jersey, Deeds in Virginia and Coakley in Massachusetts?
And BTW – I adore how you Darcy lovers think she had the ’08 election won until her lies were exposed. I mean, seriously……..
the spin by Dems on del Bene will be roughtly “smart and lefty”, while most of us on the right view her as more Obama,,,,ugh…i wonder which part of his trillions of overspend she can use her business acument to explain