A new KING-5/SurveyUSA poll shows Democratic Suzan DelBene now trailing Republican incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert 52-45%, and while a seven-point gap a month for the election wouldn’t usually be something the challenger would tout, this latest survey shows a dramatic tightening of the race at time when Republicans were expecting their Big Red Wave to be approaching its peak.
In an election for US House of Representatives in Washington State’s 8th Congressional District today, 09/30/10, incumbent Republican Dave Reichert defeats Democratic challenger Suzan DelBene 52% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive KING-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, DelBene is up 4 points; Reichert is down 2. Among moderates, Reichert had led by 4, now trails by 17, a 21-point swing to the Democrat. Among women, DelBene had trailed by 8 points, now leads by 3, an 11-point swing to the Democrat. Men and voters age 35 to 49 account for almost all of Reichert’s advantage.
52-45%, huh? Not much different from some of the polls we’ve seen in the allegedly close Patty Murray/Dino Rossi race.
Assuming SurveyUSA’s numbers can be trusted this cycle (and I’m not necessarily making that assumption), this shows a ton of movement in DelBene’s direction over the past month… the kinda momentum that should it continue, could make this race a tossup by election day. For example, Darcy Burner trailed Reichert by the exact same 54-41% margin at the end of August 2006 as DelBene trailed Reichert at the same point during this cycle, yet surged to within a silver hair of victory.
And a look at the cross-tabs suggests that there’s still plenty of opportunity for DelBene to pick up support simply by educating traditional Democratic voters about where Reichert stands on hot button issues. For example, Reichert’s still drawing 13% of liberals, 17% of Democrats, and an incongruous 30% of pro-choice voters. These are all constituencies in which DelBene stands to improve.
Interestingly WA-08 is not the only race that appears to be tightening in recent weeks, for as the New York Times reports, shifting polls suggest that Republicans are having a tough time locking down a House majority in the manner Democrats did in 2006.
By now, Republicans had hoped to put away a first layer of Democrats and set their sights on a second tier of incumbents. But the fight for control of Congress is more fluid than it seemed at Labor Day, with Democrats mounting strong resistance in some parts of the country as they try to hold off a potential Republican wave in November.
The chances of a Republican takeover in the House remain far greater than in the Senate, according to a race-by-race analysis by The New York Times. But enough contests remain in flux that both parties head into the final four weeks of the campaign with the ability to change the dynamic before Election Day.
Huh. So if Reichert’s near total lack of campaigning really is a manifestation of a cynical electoral strategy rather than, say, his traumatic brain injury, he might want to reconsider how safe his seat really is in a political climate that is at least as anti-incumbent as it is anti-Democratic.
Sorry to say it but Suzanne Del Bene like Darcy Burner before her appears to be too smart for her own good. Glad she’s done well at Microsoft. Microsoft appreciates people like her but not the voters of WA-08.
Like all the other times they will support Dave Reichert, the “brain-appropriate” Republican choice of the resolute, determined voters of the WA-08 – convinced by years of avid listening to KVI, KTTH and other outlets of “truth”.
Truth?
(I just vomited)
KTTH, the “We want our president to fail” radio station.
Speaking of truth, where are them WMD’s? Oh, that’s right. They went in trucks to Syria!
When the average brain dead Republican Zombies figure out they have been had for all these years, it could get ugly.
Giving rich people tax cuts, and never taxing corporations, is wrecking our economy, and the future of our children.
If you vote for any Republican, you deserve to live in your car.
YLB is right about one thing. Darcy, and Susan are a heck of a lot smarter than “I almost let the Green River Killer get away” loser.
So Reichert. How did your leadership tell you to vote last week?
It’s ugly already Facts – what they’re experiencing is called “cognitive dissonance”. The horror of realizing they’ve been taken for suckers all these years is fueling all this tea party activity.
But of course, the rich wise men of the right wing like the Koch brothers are steering them just the same towards hacks like Rand Paul and Christine O’Donnell who’ll tow the same old line if by some miracle they make it to DC.
is it tight enough for the republicans to roll out the “why didn’t suzan vote?” ad campaign yet? even a brain damaged citizen can vote, right?
The swing in moderate voters is a good sign for her.
Can Dave’s handlers hide him for 4 full weeks?
Maybe, they do such a good job of it any other time of the year.
YLB doesnt care as long as his state checks keep cashing.
being lazy, unemployed, and sucking the life blood out of your wife is no way to go through life ylb.
“But of course, the rich wise men of the right wing” YLB, you mean the folks that get all the tax breaks, subsidies, and loopholes written just so they can increase their wealth at the expense of the poor, and the middle class? The Koch Brothers, and human feces just like them?
In 30 years their income has increased 300% and the rest of us 17%.
The only thing fueling the tea party zombies is the fact that there is a Democrat in the White House, and Fox Lies tells them they should be mad over and over and over. We can’t have an administration that looks at people as people, and not just victims for greedy corporations that kill for profit.
Ask a tea bagger what they would do to “fix” our country? The answer would be scary. What would you expect from zombies.
http://republicansareadisease.com/?p=461 = David Koch the worst person in the world.
When has Reichert ever voted against corporate monopolies?
Anonymous ad hominem attacks; wow, real mature.
And now back to the thread: whether Reichert is suffering from TBI, or whether he is adopting the tactic of most GOP candidates in the US, is not really relevant. By keeping himself out of public view he is relying on his “image construct” to carry the election. Therefore attacking his image is a useful and valuable strategy.
Another ditzy Darcy Burnout wannabee going down….
I wonder, has she lied about her position at Microsoft and her ficticious degree yet? LOL.
So much fun to see you Libtards squirm.
Happy Sunday all!
Out at issaquah fair today. Walked by and met dino, crowds of people at the repub boot, no one at all at the dems booth. That was also true yesterday. :)
darcy burner not ditzy but quite intelligent, thoughtful, and a major overachiever as a candidate so screw all you trolls and apologist fools.
Exactly Facts. And which has kept up better with inflation over those 30 years? Not the 17% for sure.
But don’t get me wrong. I’m planning to vote Republican this November. It’s what all the kewl kids like the troll @ 10 are doing.
If you can’t beat ’em why not join them?
Why not go back to a future of continuous tax cuts for the rich?
Why not go back to the insurance companies denying claims when they find out you had acne as a teenager and didn’t write it down on the insurance application form?
Why not gin up another trillion dollar war of choice?
Why not cut a bunch of kids off SCHIP to “lower” the deficit?
Why not go back to using government agencies to promote Republican candidates?
Why not go back to days when politicians said one thing and did completely another like Vitter and Foley and Craig did?
That’s what the trolls and the media are saying might happen in November. Why fight it?
Why not go back to days when calling for a higher priority for education, health care, infrastructure and fair trade over continuous war, political corruption, hypocrisy and tax cuts for the rich was dismissed as commie, pinko, leftist, moonbat and marxist?
When I get my ballot I plan to send it in that very day. I’ll try my best to overcome those old progressive impulses and do what all the kewl kids flocking to Dino Rossi’s booth in Issaquah will do in November.
Stay tuned.
Why not rack up 20 trillion in new debt, send the dollar plumiting, gold and silver the only safe haven, golf every day and fu the american dream. Get a clue, your liberal bs is coming to an end in less than 30 days
Why not rack up 20 trillion in new debt, send the dollar plumiting, gold and silver the only safe haven, golf every day and fu the american dream.
LMAO!!! I’m all for it kewl kid! That’s exactly how it was going under the guy the trolls here voted for twice!
George W. Bush!
Back to the good old days! If you don’t like things as they are – don’t look forward!
Look back! In the rear-view mirror!
Oh gb added 4 trillion in debt in 18 mo. Show me
By the way I am looking forward to nov and your omamas demise. Every day this fu looses more votes. Keep it up klowns well discuss in depth nov 3
Even cuba new when the time to cut 500,000 guvmt hacks was. Your time is coming, and the sueiiiiiii hacks will be soon behind
YLB @ 1:
So, the voters are brain dead now? What about when they voted for Obama in 2008? Kerry in 2004? Again, when will Democrats in the 8th figure out its the candidate and their positions, not the letter following their name?
Yeah!! The Republicans will beat that easy! All they gotta do is continue the Bush policies!
Look at the graph:
http://voices.washingtonpost.c.....harts.html
18 – Darcy Burner’s positions were pretty much the same as Obama’s and Kerry’s and in many cases to the right of my own and many who supported her.
Your guess is as good as mine.
kewl kid @ 16
I’m looking forward to voting Republican when I get my battle (this is, if I can overcome my old progressive impluses for fairness and justice).
Republicans know how to win! In every category!
Including beating the Dem’s deficit!
http://voices.washingtonpost.c.....one_g.html
I love that “Pledge to America”!
21 – when I get my ballot, excuse me.
Well have a real fn good chat on nov 3
23 – I’ll be here.
Count on it.
I wouldn’t miss this drunken liberal in tears date for the life of me. Ill be sitting close by laughing my ass off
AAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What’s with the fucking Sharon Angle banner ad?
Kewl kid I’ll got out on a limb and predict that the “demise” will work out just the same if not better than the “demise” of Bill Clinton in ’94.
If anything, the crowd of Republicans itching for power in November is more colorful than the bunch we all saw back in the day.
Either way it’s going to be entertaining.
Goldy sounds like your getting nervous with this post.
Suzanne DelBene should challenge Maria Cantwell in the 2012 Senate primary, win or lose this year (I’m betting on a loss). She’s intelligent and sincere, not at all focus-group driven like La Cantwell.
But seriously, I doubt the DelBene/Reichert race is as competitive as SurveyUSA suggests. Reichert’s going to get a lot of help down the ballot from all the state legislative races in East King County, and also from Dino Rossi atop the ballot.
I expected a lot of the competitive U.S. House races to tighten up in late Sepember and early October (which seems to be a natural and routine trend in hotly contested congressional elections), but I just don’t see it happening this year: in fact, both Larry Sabato and Charlie Cook have very recently increased the number of seats they expect the GOP to win.
I just watched “Lars and the Real Girl”, a movie about a deluded loner who thought his blow-up doll was real. Everyone in the town played along, and eventually she became real to everyone else.
Reminded me of the GOP & the Tea Party…the formerly rational wing of the Republican party played along with the delusional tea partiers, that don’t know taxes are lowest they’ve been in decades, and think Obama is a Marxist/Kenyan/Racist/etc… and eventually the delusion became real to those that originally just patronized them, patted them on the head, and snickered at them behind their backs.
“Obama is a Marxist/Kenyan/Racist”
Rob S. @ 30 is right. It’s a fact. I just quoted him. His exact words.
Same quote tactic your lib icon Grayson used in Florida. How’s it feel?
DelBenzene got a poll bump because she’s gone up on TV with ads while Reichert’s been dark. Just wait until Reichert’s ads start.
Re 30
Sounds like a twisted, perverse, and not as well done version of ‘Harvey.’ Great feel good movie with Stewart spot on in his role.
But I haven’t seen Lars (and from the sounds of it won’t bother) so what do I know?
@12
if your income has only gone up 17% in 30 years, then you are a fucking loser and obviously of no use to any company you are working for.
YLB: Well, if Burner’s positions were similar to Kerry and Obama’s, then obviously it came down to the candidate. Burner was not a good candidate. You can’t automatically write off half your district and expect to win. At least DelBene recognizes all of the 8th.
I bet that DelBene doesn’t pull some idiotic gaffe as Burner did, and consequently, DelBene will do better than Burner. Whether that will make the difference to win, however, remains to be seen.
sarge: yeah, federal tax receipts as a percentage of GDP are at their lowest level since the early 1950s. The tax receipts collected from the top 1% of earners as a percentage of the GDP are at their lowest level since the 1930s.
So what’s with all the Taxed Enough Already rhetoric?
@35
perhaps because you arent counting the dozens upon dozens of other taxes that people pay – not just federal….and yes, I am fucking taxed enough.
Just wait till them hundreds of millions of dollars worth of corporate sponsored ads go on the airwaves against anyone that may oppose their total control of our government.
And when the Republiscums take a few seats, who will want a return on their investments? The corporate scumbags.
Does anyone know the meaning of the word Fascist? I am sure the 5 corporate controlled Coc* Su*kers on the Supreme Court know.
All them tea baggers are angry because Ayn Rand’s fantasies were just the cover for the rich raping and pillaging all they want from the rest of us.
When you’re homeless, and you did all you could to support your family, blame Ayn Rand’s totally insane followers, and the human maggots like Dave Reichert.
And why you don’t say.. Ok fine. You might judge a representative of the eighth based on appearance or mannerisms.
Dave’s were perhaps more appealing to you or others in the 8th. Fine.
We always get the kind of government we deserve in a democracy.
Yep that’s the record of the shrinking middle class in this country for the past 30 years.
Dishrags of the 300 percent group.
All they gotta do is wake up and refuse to listen to the siren songs and false promises of the monied bunch.
Sorry YLB. All we get is bread and and circus. They stole our bread, and the tea baggers are the circus.
I urinate on Ayn Rand, her followers, and every billionaire that corrupts our system for the benefit of passing on their tax burden to ME AND YOU!!!!!!
YLB @ 38:
Uh, “writing off half the district” and “idiotic gaffe” were not saying why Burner wasn’t good?
41 – “writing off half the district”
Which brings us full circle doesn’t it?
“brain appropriate” indeed.
And “idiotic gaffe”, well, I suppose that’s a greater offense to some than being sadly ill equipped to string even two coherent sentences together isn’t it?
But who needs that? I’ve observed in the past you don’t need that – all you need is a leadership to tell you how to vote and a consultant or two to balance that against how it plays at home. Nice work if you can get it.
Even better if you can smile, wave, keep your hair in place and frank your way into keeping folks feeling good that they gave you their vote.
The current survey pool on 09/30/2010 is 30% Republicans and 34% Democrats in the 8th CD.
The survey pool back on 08/25/2010 was 32% Republicans and 32% Democrats for the 8th CD.
So it seems like the composition of the survey pool has changed a bit, which is mostly responsible for the shift in the poll numbers. Unless a lot of voters have changed their party affiliation back to the Democrats in the last month :)
Survey USA did the same thing in the US Senate race in Kentucky. On 09/02/2010, they polled 42% Republicans and 47% Democrats, but on 09/24/2010, they polled 36% Republicans and 51% Democrats. This 10% swing in the survey pool must have contributed greatly to the 13% polling swing towards the Democrat (55%-40% Paul/Conway to only 49%-47% Paul/Conway).
I think the DelBene campaign should run this video on TV over and over and over again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v....._embedded#!
IF only people could hear Suzan DelBene speak…they’d realize how good a Representative she’d make.
Please let her campaign get her out in front of people!
Nope, those are the producers, the ones who make things the company sells, process the orders, etc. But the financial geniouses running today’s corporations figure that they can continue to cut back on producers in order to inflate stock values, then move to another company and do the same thing again before they have to pay for the effects of the decision.
It’s like the old corporate rowing cartoon – the managers all sit in the coxswain seat and debate how to make the boat more efficient, casting off rower after rower, until you have one rower and a dozen managers. Then they blame the rower because he obviously isn’t working hard enough, otherwise they would be moving faster.