I scan the Philadelphia Daily News online almost every day. Well… the sports pages, at least. But HA reader Spyder pointed me towards a column in Tuesday’s edition, by Temple University statistics professor Josh Mitteldorf: “My Election 2004 bad dream.”
Working with the National Election Archive Project, Prof. Mitteldorf co-authored a controversial statistical analysis of the November 2004 exit poll discrepancy; the exit polls predicted a Kerry victory by 3.0%, whereas the official tally had Bush winning by 2.5%… a discrepancy that cannot be attributed to chance. The report concludes that there is a strong case that “significant irregularities” occurred.
“The absence of any statistically plausible explanation for the discrepancy between Edison/Mitofsky’s exit poll data and the official presidential vote tally is an unanswered question of vital national importance that demands a thorough and unflinching investigation.”
Writing in the Daily News, Prof. Mitteldorf addresses straight on the common perception that people like him are conspiracy theorists:
On a recent flight to Nashville, I sat next to a man who asked what I was writing. Preparing a talk, I told him, for a conference of people sharing evidence that the 2004 presidential election was stolen. Without missing a beat, he asked. “Isn’t that next door to the convention on UFO sightings?”
Prof. Mitteldorf then proceeds to describe the “sober professionals, none who seem overtly loony” he met at the conference, who have reported to have uncovered massive voting irregularities throughout the nation.
I met David Griscom, a retired physics prof who spent months with colleague John Brakey poring over election tapes, signature rosters and “consecutive number registers” from Brakey’s Tucson home precinct.
They audited and verified, one by one, the 895 votes in the precinct and found: 12 innocent and unsuspecting voters who had their names duplicated on the roster and their votes for Bush counted twice. Twenty-two “undervotes” where the machine had failed to register a preference for president, and these had been dutifully and meticulously converted to 22 votes for Bush.
The “Republican” and “Democratic” co-directors of the polling place were a local fundamentalist preacher and his wife. Thirty-nine of their parishioners from another precinct had cast provisional ballots, which were (illegally) converted to regular ballots and passed through, all 39 for Bush.
I met Richard Hayes Phillips, a geologist from New Hampshire who was invited to Ohio to study the integrity of the vote, and realized that a complete inventory of lost and miscounted votes was needed. To date, Phillips has analyzed 15 of Ohio’s 88 counties, and by his most conservative estimate has found 101,000 uncounted Kerry votes – 136,000 is the margin by which Bush officially defeated Kerry.
I heard Clint Curtis talk about working in 2001 as a programmer for Yang Enterprises in Florida. He was assigned to a meeting with State Senate Speaker Tom Feeney, who asked to have a program written into the software that controls voting machines so that the totals could be manipulated without leaving a trace. Curtis, the whistleblower, is now unemployed. Feeney, the politician, is now the U.S. representative from Florida’s 24th Congressional district.
I was inspired to hear the travails of Ohio lawyer Cliff Arnebeck. After the Green Party raised $200,000 and obtained authorization for a recount in Ohio, Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell staged a charade in which every state rule about the conduct of the recount was thrown out, and two hand-picked precinct captains emerged from behind locked doors to report that yes, indeed the numbers were exactly right and all was hunky dory.
As my regular readers know, I have been reluctant to report on allegations of a stolen presidential election, but it is clear that there were significant voting irregularities in Ohio and elsewhere. Likewise, I have said little about a controversial statistical analysis of the results from Snohomish County, which by the way, is now rumored to be quietly considering scrapping their touch-screen voting machines (over the objections of County Auditor Bob Terwilliger) after numerous incidents of “calibration errors” and a number of election day complaints from voters, that screens registered a vote for Rossi when they intended a vote for Gregoire.
I have shied away from these allegations because there is no proving them, and I did not want to engage in the same sort of rumor and innuendo that passes for news on the right-wing blogs.
But as we prepare to head into the seventh month of unprecedented scrutiny of King County Elections, I’m just getting sick and tired of a double-standard that permits somebody like Slade Gorton — a former U.S. Senator and WA State Attorney General — to get away with the ridiculous “conclusion” that “King County has the worst election administration” in the nation.
Fuck you.
Many of the problems discovered in King County were systemic statewide, including mishandling of provisional ballots, and an inability to sufficiently screen the voter rolls for felons. And while there were dozens, possibly hundreds of potentially valid ballots left misplaced and uncounted in King (as well as other counties,) they represent a tiny fraction of the total ballots cast.
But for all the problems, it was nothing like the shit that went on elsewhere. It was in North Carolina where a computer inexplicably and irretrievably erased thousands of votes. It was in Ohio where tens of thousands of voters in urban precincts were forced to wait for hours in the rain, and where one precinct gave George Bush 4,258 votes out of 638 ballots cast. It was in Florida where tens of thousands of legal voters — mostly minorities — were wrongfully purged from the rolls, and where some voting machines were found to have actually counted backwards!
Yet question for a moment whether Bush actually won either of his elections, and the righties will laugh you off as “aluminum hat boy.” Meanwhile, the paranoid, partisan shills on the right-wing blogs and talk radio freely use words like “fraud” and “corruption” to describe our so-called “stolen election”… going so far as to suggest that Dean Logan deserves jail time.
What’s lacking from the Republican’s steady attack on the integrity of Logan and King County Elections, is perspective. There is no evidence of fraud, no evidence of conspiracy, and no evidence of official misconduct. The election was conducted in an extraordinarily transparent fashion, and has been excruciatingly scrutinized… and while a number of disturbing mistakes have been uncovered — mistakes that can clearly be fixed — they would have been insignificant if not for the bizarrely close gubernatorial election. Thus to attack our election as a “total mess” while dismissing the massive problems reported in Ohio, Florida and elsewhere, is an act of shameless hypocrisy.
If Rossi’s attorneys can prove that irregularities cost him the election, then he will prevail in court. But if they want to continue to characterize King County as having the “worst elections” in the nation, then it’s the Rossi folk who should be wearing the aluminum hats.
Nice post. Thanks. Marilyn
Which is worse – felons inadvertantly voting, electoral glitches within a .01 percent margin of error, and a few military absentee ballots that weren’t returned on time – or a systematic effort by Republican electeds (I’m lookin at you Jeb, Kathleen Harris, and Mr. Blackwell) to deliberately disenfranchise tens of thousands of legitimate voters through illegal ballot purges, supplying too few voting machines in minority and Democratic precincts, and black box voting (with proprietary software owned by big Rethug donors) without paper trails?
But, a felon who thought he was eligible to vote is FAR beyond the pale?
Fuck all y’all (I’m lookin at you, trolls!)
You can always tell when something’s weighing heavy on our Goldy’s mind… he breaks out a plethora of words and few “Fuck you.”‘s.
It’s goning to be a long few days till May 3rd.
*going
So you are saying you should all just accept that the election sytem is screwed up and accept it, just like you are telling us to do about the governor election? hmm…
let’s see: gregoire is in office legitimately because she is. and because errors are OK as just part of election difficulties.
but when BUSH wins, the above doesn’t count.
hypocrit.
I claim Gregoire legitimately won. Proof: she is in office.-Comment by dj— 4/28/05 @ 8:48 am from thread “Election contest dissonance”
I claim Bush legitimately won. Proof: he is in office
Eugenics @ 7
“I claim Bush legitimately won. Proof: he is in office”
And, as I stated twice in that comment thread. I accept your claim and evidence!
Dip shit. :-)
OFF TOPIC
I mailed the first half of my King County property tax bill this morning.
I just want to thanks Tax-to-the-Max Sims and all his King County cohorts for the opportunity to pay usery fees in the amount of $2,463.28 (half my tax bill, tyvm) on my very own little (and I stress little) piece of heaven.
Golly, gosh, gee, whiz, that’s only double from what I paid 10 years ago.
What are you lovely King County libs going to do next to help your citizens… double it in 5 years instead of 10?
Dip shit. Comment by dj— 4/28/05 @ 11:44 am
Ah yes, the enlightened, intellectual elitis left forwarding his thesis/arguement in a concise and clear manner.
Eugenics @ 10
“…intellectual elitis….”
WTF? Goldy, perhaps you need a rudimentary intelligence test on the “Leave a comment” form to prevent morons like Eugenics from spouting this kind of brainless drivel.
Of course none of you liberals “seem overtly loony” to EACH OTHER. duh. UFO sightings in the heads of algore & kerry.
robbed @ 6
I didn’t realize Bush isn’t in office. Did I sleep through something?
ingrate @ 9
You should be grateful to live in a house on which you owe $5,000 a year in property taxes, asshole. That means your home is worth at least half a million dollars. If you don’t understand how fortunate you are, go visit a Tent City.
Is this supposed to be a serious thread?
Hypothetical question for folks of all political persuasion.
SUPPOSE next week it can be proven with great certainty that Bush, in fact, lost Ohio after errors, illegal votes, fucked up voting machines, and low-level fraud are uncovered. (Note: I am not claiming this).
What is your proposed remedy?
OFF TOPIC
Moron @ 9 “I just want to thanks Tax-to-the-Max Sims and all his King County cohorts for the opportunity to pay usery fees in the amount of $2,463.28 (half my tax bill, tyvm) on my very own little (and I stress little) piece of heaven.
Golly, gosh, gee, whiz, that’s only double from what I paid 10 years ago.”
But just think of all the taxes you are saving and laying on the heads of your children and grandchildren with Mr. “Spend and Debt” Bush as your president.
You should be ashamed of your whining BS!
Oh, and FUCK YOU!
15 dj: my remedy is the same as for many dems in WA re guv: BUSH STAYS !!!
“….if not for the bizarrely close gubernatorial election.”
Actually, Goldy, based on your comments earlier about voting machine “errors” in Snohomish County, maybe the election wasn’t that close after all — notably this tidbit you wrote: “that screens registered a vote for Rossi when they intended a vote for Gregoire.”
I think that’s a lot more significant than much of the silliness that the Rossi and Vance and nutwing crowd keep harping on.
Robbed @ 17
Many thanks for the comment. Any other replies to the question posed @ 15?
seems you lefties have a favorite word? F you this and F you that. a real mature group you are.
Well, Rush we could talk about hillbilly heroin and blowjobs, but you already have that covered.
Idiot.
Rush @ 20
Us lefties are sinister.
I would value your opinion on the question posed @ 15
What is the problem with fixing all this? Neither party wants to. Each party claims the other cheated all the time. But never have I seen either party (except maybe a few outliers) actively support what would fix the problem. Valid photo ID at the time of voting. Instead we get all sorts of excuses why photo ID wouldn’t work. i.e. to old to drive, not enough time to get the ID., disenfranchizement, etc. Rubish. Change the rule and do it now. People that want to vote can take the time to update their registration. What a thought. Prove who you are to vote. That seems like such a base idea but why is there such resistance to it.
There are alot of good things going on now. New voter db. Purging the roles, etc. But unless you make people prove who they are we will continue to have all of the same questions we have now.
Think about a national election where everybody had to PROVE they were a citizen and a legitimate voter before they could vote. OMG it would be fair and above reproach.
Why don’t you all grow up and actually support election reform instead of just spewing all this hatred.
And Goldy, this is actually not directed at you since I know from reading that you support reforms on the system. This is directed at the half brain dead people who are posting that don’t realize that the system is so broke nobody trusts it but continue to complain and not do a damned thing.
Anyone can take a poll. I can take one in the middle of heavy republican territory and it will not reflect accurate figures unless I also take polls in a heavily democrat area. Polls, like statistics, can say anything you want them to say. How you ask the questions can affect the answers–you can skew the questions to get the answer you want. Also, take into account that many really pissed-off conservatives who sat on their laurels last time came out to vote this time–the panic factor (couldn’t imagine a Pres. Kerry). So, screw your polls, Goldy. You, more than anyone, should know they are not all that accurate.
X 2 2–“to deliberately disenfranchise”–When a state licensed handwriting expert says 300 write-ins all bore the same handwriting, what would you call that? A 129 vote “lead” doesn’t look so good then, does it? When foreign citizens vote here, it negates a domestic vote–what would you call THAT? When felons who have not been restored to voting status vote, it negates a valid vote–what would you call THAT? When dual or triple ballots are sent in by those with homes in other states, what would you call that? Michael Moore syndrome? I call it disenfranchisement. I am all for everyone having to re-register and only vote at the local polling place and only on one day and then have indelible ink applied to their WHOLE HAND to prevent fraud, if that is what it takes to to do the job. Disenfranchisement by any other method still stinks.
Stop @ 9–What they plan to do next is adopt the IRS short form approach–“How much did you make? Send it in!” That takes all those pesky details out of the process, don’t you think?
DJ @ 11–Eugenics was not at 10. Did you miss that test?
Alan @ 13–“You should be grateful to live in a house on which you owe $5,000 a year in property taxes, asshole. That means your home is worth at least half a million dollars.” Tell the retired folks in your area how grateful they should be when they HAVE to sell and move because their paid-off house is too expensive in just taxes alone! Maybe they should be GLAD they have to move away from their families and neighborhoods, too? Yeah, just a bunch of whiners, I guess. You guys slay me….never a dull moment. It would just be funnier and funnier, if it weren’t so scary that you actually believe this crap.
DJ @ 15–Hypothetical answer: Uh….fire Gregoire? What’s good for the goose…, as they say.
Well, in all seriousness, we should have a revote to sort it out and shoot anyone found cheating–send a message. In the event that you should object to shooting violators, we could give them excessively long prison sentences. If that proves to be cruel and unusual punishment and they were simply misunderstood as children, we could give them an all-expense paid trip to Disney World in Florida, where they would spend the day with Judge Greer and Michael Schiavo at the golf course and have their legal defense paid for by John Kerry and Patty Murray. If this is also out of the question, I am open to suggestions from Libs of ALL persuasions.
@ 16–Donny, Donny, Donny….tsk, tsk, such language. I do believe your IQ is showing. Oh, and wipe your nose, please….and your pants are unzipped, too. There’s a good boy.
That means your home is worth at least half a million dollars. If you don’t understand how fortunate you are, go visit a Tent City.???
He can’t do that. It is afterall his personal tax dollars that support the rightstag when it takes down tent cities. This is a composite video of non-violent, civil disobedient(the no-camping on campus law), residents of the Tent city at UCSC being gently removed by law enforcement operating under orders from the Terminator–no the governator, that’s it.
warning not for the squeamish–but probably loved by peteugenics!
http://dmedia.ucsc.edu/%7eafro.....dServe.mov
X @ 2–I forgot all those disenfranchised military personnel that your side cared so much about, too. A hearty “Thanks for your service to our county, Dems!” Yeah…right.
21: you were refering to Hill Billy Beer Carter and BJ Clinton, I assume?
Soundcrossing @ 23–Brilliantly said and a wonderful remedy, but these patients would rather die than take their medicine.
DJ–stop harping and read your answer at 24.
robbed @ 17
Then you have no complaint if GREGOIRE STAYS!!!
Hey, White Whine @ 12 and 14:
Are you going to take me up on my bet, or are you just another gutless right-winger hiding behind a keyboard? Come on. Real men put their money where there fingers are. $200 says Sims wins re-election.
whistling through nose @ 26
What “disenfranchised” military people? The righty claim that military voters were disenfranchised is bullshit. All military ballots were mailed by Oct. 8, the federal deadline. Any overseas military personnel who didn’t receive a ballot or whose ballot was delayed in the MILITARY mail system (not Dean Logan’s fault) could have voted by asking his unit’s Voting Assistance Officer for a Federal Write In Ballot. All he had to do to vote for Rossi was write in “GOP” or “R” for governor. King County counted over 14,000 military/overseas ballots (including 1,300+ FWIB’s, so SOMEBODY figured out how to use them) and disqualified only 16 for arriving late. These were not necessarily military, they could have been civilians living overseas, and the most likely reason for arriving late was the voter’s proscratination.
It’s a myth that military voters were disenfranchised in this election.
Goldy, has is occured to you that another possible explanation for the difference between Bush’s actual win and what the polls showed is that the polls were simply wrong?
Here’s a link to a site that I tracked on election night that nailed the polls and the reasons why they were wrong almost perfectly.
The irregularity was most likely in Democrat friendly pollsters who wanted to set a tone that Kerry had won to discourage late right wing voters from voting when they heard the news of the early exit polls.
I am sure you will like the name of the site because this guy likes horses too. How special.
Check out the analysis pre and post election. A lot to read, but it paints a much clearer picture that what you are presenting here. And this guy had his own man on the street in each of the key states on election night.
My fondest memory of this past election was the realization that indeed the new media was taking hold when I sat watching coverage of the election and the two democrat shill women Hillary Rosen and Susan Estrich (who’s makeup job was so bad she looked like the women coming out of the airplane lavatory in the movie Airplane) defiantly saying that Kerry had won Ohio while I was reading the Horse Race blog online simultaneously and getting a much different report. Someone was lying, and I trust a blogger with a very rational and logical analysis behind his report over MSM talking heads any day.
Go read it:
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/
blowhard @ 23
Did you sleep through this legislative session? The Legislature passed several election reform bills. The most important creates a statewide database that should solve the felon voting problem in future elections. Provisional ballots also will be handled differently, as well. That takes care of the two biggest problems. Just because the Repukes didn’t get their voter suppression bills passed doesn’t mean the Legislature didn’t do anything. While Repukes were grandstanding the rest of the Legislature did something CONSTRUCTIVE. Wake up and smell the coffee, idiot.
whistling @ 29
“DJ–stop harping and read your answer at 24.”
Hmmm. . . I didn’t posted anything between 24 and now.
In any case, I appreciate you giving an answer. If I understand it correctly, you would be in favor of holding a national re-vote between Kerry and Bush in the hypothetical situation presented at 15.
whistling thru nose @ 24
Let’s see your proof that even ONE senior citizen was forced out of their home by property taxes. More b.s. from the blowhard right. If they’re too poor to pay property taxes they get an exemption, dummy! But it so happens there’s plenty of senior citizens who can afford their property taxes. Who do you think is driving all those $300,000 RVs? Not twentysomethings!
Rightys are good at bitching about taxes but they’re always first in line for government largesse. What a bunch of hypocritical freeloaders.
Goldy et. al,
I will save you all the time of reading through everything at the Horse Race blog. This analysis of the polls just prior to the November election says it all.
I sure wasn’t forwarding this site to any Democrats before the election as the analysis was so good it should have almost been kept a campaign secret, but now that the election is long over, maybe this will help you all understand why you lost even though you thought from what you read in the polls that Kerry was going to win.
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/20.....chive.html
Once again, the GOP is interested in a special version of justice called – just – us!
Ivan @ 31–Sad to say you are probably correct that Sims will get re-elected—on an affirmative action program, or because he is so cute, or because you feel sorry for him not being able to use the English language, or because you expect a different result next time or….
Alan @ 32–Well, that still leaves the other categories you have side-stepped so nicely.
Ol’ Ron Sims and the “Osimisic Poppa-lation” of King County.
DJ @ 35–“I didn’t posted anything between 24 and now.” Who said you did? I just saw all the whinigs about why no-one answered your question and thought I would point you to it.
“In any case, I appreciate you giving an answer. If I understand it correctly, you would be in favor of holding a national re-vote between Kerry and Bush in the hypothetical situation presented at 15.”
A. I DID give you an answer. If you can’t find your glasses, have someone else read it for you. B. Yes, I would stand Bush up against Kerry again in a heartbeat and if we ALL make sure the votes are fair, I believe he would still win. Are you willing to do the same with Greg-ore?
Alan @ 34
Tell me why every Democrat legislator that I’ve personally seen is against actual photographic proof of who a voter is before being able to vote? What are we “repukes” trying to surpress by asking for photo ID? Answer: illegal aliens voting, double votes, felons voting, multi-state voters. Wow that is surpression.
In all seriousness what is one good argument against having to prove who you are before you get to vote?
RE-FLASH for DJ:
DJ @ 15–Hypothetical answer: Uh….fire Gregoire? What’s good for the goose…, as they say.
Well, in all seriousness, we should have a revote to sort it out and shoot anyone found cheating–send a message. In the event that you should object to shooting violators, we could give them excessively long prison sentences. If that proves to be cruel and unusual punishment and they were simply misunderstood as children, we could give them an all-expense paid trip to Disney World in Florida, where they would spend the day with Judge Greer and Michael Schiavo at the golf course and have their legal defense paid for by John Kerry and Patty Murray. If this is also out of the question, I am open to suggestions from Libs of ALL persuasions.
Alan @ 36:
The exemption, as I recall is for one year.
I don’t have any weepy stories of seniors being kicked out of their homes. I have lots of stories about whiny seniors bitching about the tax burden. Fortunately, most of the whiny seniors I know, being Republicans, and knowing what a dollar is worth, have figured out a solution.
1. Realize your dump in King County is worth $700,000.
2. Sell your dump and laugh your way to the bank.
3. Take the proceeds, buy five acres out on the Peninsula, build any sort of house you like, and laugh at how buying and living in a modest suburban tract home for 30 years turned into a giant pile of money that they didn’t have to pay a dime of capital gains tax on.
4. Retire to the peninsula, and say good bye to scummy yuppies, awful traffic, Democratic legislators, sky-high tax bills, and all the other ills of urban life.
As much as Eugenics likes to whine, the millages (i.e. what you pay as a percentage of the value of the property) here are pretty low. It’s just the property values that are out of sight.
If Eugenics is looking South to California as an example of how things should be, I should remind him that Cali’s Prop 13-capped millages apply only to residential property. Commercial property is taxed as much as anywhere else, or more so. This creates a strong incentive for municipalities to approve commerical construction over residential (yes, California looks like one big ugly strip mall for a reason), and it makes me wonder why Eugenics hates small businessmen so much.
Whistling @ 44
“A. I DID give you an answer. If you can’t find your glasses, have someone else read it for you.”
You dim wit! Re-read my comment @ 35
I was thanking you for giving an answer. I did NOT say “I would appreciate it if you would give an answer.” I DID say, “I appreciate you giving an answer.”
Learn to fucking read, twit.
DJ–I think Soundcrossing at 43 deserves an answer, too. See what you can do.
DJ @ 46–Point taken. My apologies.
Alan @ 36–First of all, I won’t do your homework FOR you. I know where that road goes–I spend lots of time gathering info that you choose to ignore and change the subject…..
Secondly–“Rightys are good at bitching about taxes but they’re always first in line for government largesse. What a bunch of hypocritical freeloaders.” I think a lesson in history will tell you who introduced “entitlements” to our social(ist)vocabulary. Care to check on that, too?
Goldy: “…Yet question for a moment whether Bush actually won either of his elections, and the righties will laugh you off as “aluminum hat boy.” Meanwhile, the paranoid, partisan shills on the right-wing blogs and talk radio freely use words like “fraud” and “corruption” to describe our so-called “stolen election”… going so far as to suggest that Dean Logan deserves jail time.”
Goldy, replace the words ‘Bush’ with ‘Gregoire’ and you have some of your recent posts. Don’t defend a 130 vote margin as more ‘valid’ than a 100,000 vote margin. I don’t see how anybody can say ‘Bush lost’ and turn around and say ‘Gregoire won, so shut up’, or vise versa.
The flip side of Slade Gorton’s comments are John Kerry’s recent comments and Ron Sims’ “model election” comments. Were there screw-ups in Ohio and Washington? Certainly! Enough to overturn the result? No.
Also, the links you provided assumed greater accuracy of exit polling over the actual results: “Exit polling is a well-developed science, informed by half a century of experience and continually improving methodology.” And the voting professionals (who you have been defending tooth and nail) haven’t got voting to a “well developed science”?
You can’t have it both ways, either both elections were faulty or both were valid.
Off topic post by Stop their CATerwauling, spay/neuter ALL Pet Libs at 9:
Yes, but what PERCENTAGE is your tax bill in relation to your home’s value, and what was that percentage 10 years ago? Mine hasn’t changed much (less than .5 decrease
Jon @ 50
I’ll second that, but don’t expect logic to set in with these Liberals or any for that matter.
whistling @ 47
“DJ–I think Soundcrossing at 43 deserves an answer, too. See what you can do.”
Well. . . since you asked so nicely. . . . :-)
Soundcrossing said “illegal aliens voting, double votes, felons voting, multi-state voters. Wow that is surpression.”
And just how does showing a photo ID fix any of these problems? I will go out on a limb here to say that nearly all of the ineligible ex-felons who thought they were entitled to vote last election had a photo id. If you want to stop ineligible ex-felons from voting, you gotta do it in the voter rolls before Election Day!
Double votes: Just how does showing an ID reduce double voting?
Multi-state voters: If they are going to the polls in two states on Election Day, they are intentionally breaking the law, and probably have photo ids (legal or illegal) to work with. For example, they could show a passport for a photo ID in both places.
“In all seriousness what is one good argument against having to prove who you are before you get to vote?”
1. A small, but non-trivial, fraction of voters in this state do not have photo IDs.
2. Obtaining a photo ID will disproportionately burden for poorer folks and will, therefore, be a hurdle to exercising their right to vote.
3. There is no evidence that we have voting problems that are solved with a photo ID requirement at the polls. Where is the evidence that people showed up at the polls only to learn that someone else had already voted on their behalf?
But, our society is increasingly becoming more security-conscious (i.e. we are becoming a police state). I foresee that 10 years down the road, it will be impossible to function in our society without a photo ID (or biometric ID). Therefore, I can see that, IF we continue to have walk-in polling places, eventually a photo ID or biometric ID requirement at the polls will not create much of a hardship.
Oh yes, Goldy one other strange thing from your post…”I met Richard Hayes Phillips, a geologist from New Hampshire who was invited to Ohio to study the integrity of the vote…”
Did I read geologist?
“a science that deals with the history of the earth and its life especially as recorded in rocks”
Huh?
All Tools @ 52
“I’ll second that, but don’t expect logic to set in with these Liberals or any for that matter.”
I have reread, parsed, searched between, over, and under the lines.. But the only thing communicated from your post is that you are a blithering idiot.
Sorry, I keep finding interesting tidbits about your post Goldy. I searched for Josh Mitteldorf and found this (that he wrote):
“My primary occupation these days is evolutionary biology. I am a theorist, specializing in computer simulations that demonstrate how natural selection can act on groups and communities. I am affiliated with the Biology Dept of the University of Pennsylvania as a post-doc, and teach a math course at Temple University…I’m a peace activist and an environmentalist, a long-time board treasurer at Pennsylvania’s Clean Air Council before a dispute over financial integrity ended that relationship. I fight the deception, bribery, political and legal manipulation that keeps Big Tobacco profitable, as a past president of the Coalition for a Tobacco-Free Pennsylvania and an active member of TEACH.”
Oh yes, I can certainly see that his worldview is a complete moderate and he is an expert in election analysis!
Just remember Folks “EVERY LEGAL VOTE MUST MUST BE COUNTED! What happened to your mantra before the election was over?
GS @ 57
“EVERY LEGAL VOTE MUST MUST BE COUNTED! What happened to your mantra before the election was over?”
Ummmm. . . the election ended?
Proof there is, that bush lost the election twice.
Accusations, and allegations are good enough in washington state, they are.
gregoire should leave office, because rossi and vance lied, she should.
shrub should remain in office, because republicans talk over the lies, he should.
Say it. gregoire, though having no evidence, other than she won the election, should step down.
shrub, having tomes of evidence available, that crimes were committed to get him elected should stay.
This is what republicans stand for. They are criminals covering criminals.
thats why washington state is turning blue, it is.
I am a poll voter and I have always shown photo ID and a voter registration card. Not that anyone asked for it – I just always had it ready. I didn’t notice what others did. In my estimation, there’s way to big a deal made on this on both sides of the fence. I don’t think photo ID is required, but…
What is the voter registration card for? why do we get voter registration cards if they aren’t meant to be used to verify voter registration? I get one every year. My husband, who votes absentee, doesn’t get one every year, but he carries his and he checks to remember whether or not to use the middle initial before he sends his ballot in.
Now, aside from the issue of whether poll voters need to show ID and absentee voters don’t have to show anything, ever, I guess my question is: What is the voter registration card for? Why can’t people just produce that?
I don’t think it needs to be a photo ID, but I don’t think it is too much too ask for people to show their voter registration card. If they registered, they have a voter registration card – why can’t they show that?
This whole ID thing is much ado about nothing, in my estimation, but since everyone has a voter registration card, what is the BFD about showing that? In fact, perhaps there would have been less confusion if those requesting a provisional ballot would have had to show their voter registration card.
Don-a-pathetic (FACT! NOT NAME CALLING) @ 55
hmm… pot calling kettle black? but hey have fun with the whole reverting to highschool blame game to cover your own short comings, I certainly hope it makes you happy.
Marilyn @ 60: I agree, I’ve never understood the big deal over photo IDs, as I’ve never heard of large numbers of illegal votes. A good opinion piece on the subject is here by Daniel P. Tokaji, who says the photo ID requirements may be a solution looking for a problem, may also be struck down as a poll tax, and if a state is going to require id, then it needs to make it very easy and free to get one. His solution is a federal id/voting id card.
It was quite dumb of the R’s to kill moving the primary back because they didn’t get the photo id requirement.
AllHatAndNoHorse @ 59: “Proof there is, that bush lost the election twice. Accusations, and allegations are good enough in washington state, they are.”
No, Yoda, you are the one making accusations & allegations, just like Vance & Co. here.
All Tools @61
“pot calling kettle black?”
Yes, I can see why you are a Bush supporter. You certainly speak the language.
“the exit polls predicted a Kerry victory by 3.0%, whereas the official tally had Bush winning by 2.5%… a discrepancy that cannot be attributed to chance. The report concludes that there is a strong case that “significant irregularities” occurred.”
Yeah, the irregularities were the biased Democrat pollsters who were hoping to affect the outcome of the election. It didn’t work this time for the Democrat election stealing machine so yeah, to the regular crooked Daly Democrats I am sure it looked irregular.
Don breaking wind @ 64
Keep diverting attention from the sad old angry man you are, it’s theraputic isn’t it?
I have to admit, making a horses ass out of conservatives is very enjoyable!
And did you have your Mommy type that post for you? It made sense and everything was spelled correctly! Congratulations!
so anyway back to the issue at hand, so the reason why you are all fighting Republicans in getting a new election is?
A) I am still angy about Ohio and Florida, so I’m going to let it taint the rest of my life.
B) I’m a bitter hypocrite who only likes when elections go my way, wether or not they were legitamately won.
C) My mommy and daddy were died in the wool Democrats so I should sacrifice my last shred of dignity protecting the homestead.
D) F*#K you man, I don’t need a reason for being ignorant it’s my party and I’ll cry if I want to.
E)I always do what CNN and MSM command me to, Liberal media thy will be done.
For your listening pleasure:
Some people claim that as adults, we don’t have do-overs. Yet according to RCW 29A.68.110, we DO get a do-over.
And another favorite fresh from the hit list: Please read WHOLE thing carefully.
Wednesday, April 20, 2005 Seattle PI
GOP analysis gives Rossi 100-vote win
But Democrats say state law doesn’t allow counting like that
By GREGORY ROBERTS
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER
Without ballots cast by felons, dead voters and non-citizens, Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire would have lost the 2004 election to Republican Dino Rossi by about 100 votes, according to a statistical report cited by the GOP in its legal challenge to Gregoire’s victory.
But it’s uncertain if the courts will buy the statistical arguments, which are a key to the GOP effort to overturn Gregoire’s 129-vote win. Democrats say state law doesn’t allow such arguments.
The analysis was part of recent legal filings by the Republicans listing the votes they intend to attack as improper in the election trial, which starts May 23 in Chelan County Superior Court.
Gregoire squeaked out her victory after a hand recount of more than 2.8 million votes cast.
The GOP filings mention several categories of allegedly improper votes in the election, including:
946 ballots cast by felons, who are barred from voting by the state constitution unless their civil rights have been restored. Of those, 726 came from King County.
53 ballots cast in the names of dead voters, including 39 in King County.
22 ballots from voters who voted twice in Washington state, and five from voters who voted in Washington and another state.
Two absentee ballots from Chehalis that were filled out by someone other than the registered voter who received them.
Two ballots from Seattle cast by non-citizens, who are ineligible to vote.
317 provisional ballots that were tabulated without the required verification of voter status. All but a handful are from King County.
The filing refers to 348 provisional ballots that King County election officials specifically have identified as votes improperly counted without verification. The filing says that information about the voters who cast those ballots isn’t available. County election officials have said the actual total of improperly counted provisionals is close to 660.
In the data they provided their statisticians for analysis, the Republicans included 92 of those provisional ballots — the number King County officials have said were cast by voters who could not be found later on registration lists.
Two political science professors — Jonathan Katz of the California Institute of Technology and Anthony Gill of the University of Washington — broke down the data for the GOP.
Both subtracted improper votes from the candidates in proportion to the overall vote each received. When possible, precinct returns were used to establish the pattern; otherwise, county results set the percentages. For example, if Gregoire received 60 percent of a vote in Precinct A and Rossi 40 percent, and there were 100 improper votes from that precinct, Gregoire’s total would be reduced by 60 votes and Rossi’s by 40.
In most cases, the number of improper votes traceable to a single precinct is very small — often, as few as one. In that case, using the same percentages, Gregoire would lose 0.6 votes and Rossi 0.4.
Katz analyzed 1,053 allegedly improper votes statewide and concluded that eliminating them from the count would yield a roughly 100-vote margin for Rossi. (The total of improper votes in Katz’s report is less than the total of claimed by the GOP in separate documents.)
Gill focused on votes from felons that could be tied to individual precincts. Subjecting the 879 votes in his data base to the statistical analysis would produce a Rossi edge of 191.38 votes, Gill said.
In pretrial rulings, Judge John Bridges has said it won’t be enough for Rossi to show the number of improper votes exceeded Gregoire’s margin of victory. According to state law and previous court cases, the GOP will have to demonstrate that Gregoire owes her win to illegal votes, Bridges said.
Because improper ballots can’t be separated from legal ones once the votes are cast and counted, the Republicans hope to meet the standard by applying the statistical analysis.
“We’re confident that the judge is going to agree with us that this is the way to do it,” state GOP Chairman Chris Vance said yesterday.
But Democratic lawyer David McDonald said Washington state law does not allow that approach.
Bobbie Egan, a spokeswoman for the King County election department, said prosecutors had referred fewer than 10 cases involving ballots from dead voters to the sheriff’s office for investigation. The number on the GOP list could be larger because of bookkeeping errors, she said.
Election officials have revoked the registrations of 247 felons, Egan said, and 300 more may be challenged by prosecutors later this month. -GREGORY ROBERTS
Copy and paste for an instant do-over!
http://www.leg.wa.gov/RCW/inde.....on=section
RCW 29A.68.110
Illegal votes — Number of votes affected — Enough to change result.
No election may be set aside on account of illegal votes, unless it appears that an amount of illegal votes has been given to the person whose right is being contested, that, if taken from that person, would reduce the number of the person’s legal votes below the number of votes given to some other person for the same office, after deducting therefrom the illegal votes that may be shown to have been given to the other person.
[2003 c 111 § 1711; 1965 c 9 § 29.65.100. Prior: Code 1881 § 3108; 1865 p 43 § 4; RRS § 5369. Formerly RCW 29.65.100.]
“…X 2 2–”to deliberately disenfranchise”–When a state licensed handwriting expert says 300 write-ins all bore the same handwriting, what would you call that? A 129 vote “lead†doesn’t look so good then, does it? When foreign citizens vote here, it negates a domestic vote–what would you call THAT? When felons who have not been restored to voting status vote, it negates a valid vote–what would you call THAT? When dual or triple ballots are sent in by those with homes in other states, what would you call that? Michael Moore syndrome? I call it disenfranchisement. I am all for everyone having to re-register and only vote at the local polling place and only on one day and then have indelible ink applied to their WHOLE HAND to prevent fraud, if that is what it takes to to do the job. Disenfranchisement by any other method still stinks.”
You prove my point admirably – Republicans equate the watering down of legitimate votes by the uncoordinated actions (whether deliberate or inadvertant) of a realtively few voters with a systematic program sponsored and paid for by state governments to deliberately and directly disenfranchise tens of thousands of voters. You evidently haven’t figured out that there is a big difference, but I guess your inability to grasp even the most basic nuances in an argument should come as no surprise.
Individual errors and illegally cast ballots are just that – the isolated acts of individuals. When Jebby Bush hires a firm to purge the voter rolls – and that firm advises him that they are disenfranchising thousands of legally registered voters but and he says go ahead and do it anyway – that is a whole other kettle of fish, period.
What I wouldn’t give to have been in Dade County Florida during the 2000 recount when the Republicans sent their staffers in to disrupt and stop the counting. Had I been there, some of those bully-boy Rethugs would have found out first hand that not all liberals are pacifists or pussies.
whistler @ 40
So you now admit that military voters weren’t disenfranchised?
whistler @ 42
“Yes, I would stand Bush up against Kerry again in a heartbeat and if we ALL make sure the votes are fair, I believe he would still win. Are you willing to do the same with Greg-ore?”
Sounds fair to me. Yes, I would take that deal.
soundcrossing @ 43
Also poor, disabled, and elderly people who don’t drive.
SlugFest @ 69
“Some people claim that as adults, we don’t have do-overs. Yet according to RCW 29A.68.110, we DO get a do-over.”
Read RCW 29A.68.110. It does not say anything whatsoever about “do-overs”. It only discusses the standard of proof needed to set aside an election.
People do not dispute that the election can be set aside. The Judge has said, however, that he has no authority to offer a new election as a remedy.
The real debate is whether a statistical correction rises to the level of proof required by RCW 29A.68.110.
whistler @ 44
Shooting Katherine Harris and Ken Blackwell seems harsh to me. Prison time will be sufficient.
jsa @ 45
Yes, isn’t it great that we live in a country where inflation causes your home to appreciate more than all the wages you’ll earn in your entire life? Only in America.
whistling with hands in pockets @ 49
“First of all, I won’t do your homework FOR you. I know where that road goes–I spend lots of time gathering info that you choose to ignore and change the subject…..”
Uhh, wait …. scrreeeeeech … why should I have to prove that seniors are forced out of their homes by property taxes? I didn’t make that claim, you did! Normally, the proponent of a proposition has the burden of proof. Since you don’t have any, it seems fair to conclude that I characterized your assertion correctly when I called it bullshit.
Mr. X @ 72
“Had I been there, some of those bully-boy Rethugs would have found out first hand that not all liberals are pacifists or pussies.”
PLEASE! What WOULD your minister mother say about such actions????
Mine, too! She is a Lutheran minister and would tell me to go KICK SOME ASS!
dj @ 56
Looks to me like the guy should get credit for worrying about things besides his own pocketbook.
RCW 29A.60.200
“The county canvassing board shall proceed to verify the results from the precincts and the absentee ballots. The board shall execute a certificate of the results of the primary or election signed by all members of the board or their designees. Failure to certify the returns, if they can be ascertained with reasonable certainty, is a crime under RCW 29A.84.720. ”
The word “verify” has a any of you that still believe that November produced a “model election” sweating.
Memo to tools re 66: Donnageddon is not Don/Dubysux/Alan/guvmint hack attorney.
All tools no brains @ 68
Very good description of Rossi supporters!
Alan @ 81
I agree completely with you! But, I think you meant to address Jon.
Jon @ 54 and 56. It should be no surprise that hard scientists, biologists, and social scientists end up doing these things. These are folks are researchers, and probably have a PhD, which in the sciences is a degree granted only after a candidate completes a substantial and original research project.
Of course, the ultimate test will be getting the conference papers written up and published in peer-reviewed academic journals. . . .
SSF @ 69
“Some people claim that as adults, we don’t have do-overs. Yet according to RCW 29A.68.110, we DO get a do-over.”
Where does RCW 29A.68.110 say that? It says:
“No election may be set aside on account of illegal votes, unless it appears that an amount of illegal votes has been given to the person whose right is being contested, that, if taken from that person, would reduce the number of the person’s legal votes below the number of votes given to some other person for the same office, after deducting therefrom the illegal votes that may be shown to have been given to the other person.”
Nothing in there about another election. And Judge Bridges has already ruled he doesn’t have authority to order a new election. You probably should leave lawyering to professionals.
As for Katz and Gill, if they want to get paid, their analysis WOULD put Rossi ahead, wouldn’t it? I mean, why would the GOP hire them to show that Gregoire won? There’s a zillion different ways to analyze statistics, so naturally they’ll chose one that produces the conclusion their employer is paying them to produce, dontcha think?
Jeff B @ 82
“The word “verify” has … you … sweating.”
Not in the least. If you keep reading, it says:
“Failure to certify the returns, if they can be ascertained with reasonable certainty, is a crime. . . .”
A couple hundred known errors out of close to a million votes in King County falls comfortably within “reasonable certainty”. Not certifying the election because of a tiny fraction of errors would have been a felony for the canvassing board.
Mr. X @ 72
“What I wouldn’t give to have been in Dade County Florida during the 2000 recount when the Republicans sent their staffers in to disrupt and stop the counting. Had I been there, some of those bully-boy Rethugs would have found out first hand that not all liberals are pacifists or pussies.”
Yeah, as I watched that on TV, I wished I was there. I woulda had to defend myself. Self-defense against a violent mob, know what I mean? The Democrats should’ve passed out axe handles.
Alan, it is all to frequent that our resident RepTrolliCans have the actual ability to think, a few do a good job, 90% are just talking heads, repetitive neanderthalls and burnt out shells
DJ @ 87
Logic is not your strong point. I am “reasonably certain” that those ballots and their certification changed the outcome of the election.
“A couple hundred known errors out of close to a million votes in King County falls comfortably within “reasonable certainty”. Not certifying the election because of a tiny fraction of errors would have been a felony for the canvassing board.”
dj @ 85
My mistake. My apologies. My fingers made me do it!
All tools no brains @ 90
Really? Who, pray tell, were those votes for? And how do you know?
Yes brainless, Im all ears also. Do tell how you’ve managed to apply these alleged illegal votes.
loose screw @ 87
“Logic is not your strong point. I am “reasonably certain” that those ballots and their certification changed the outcome of the election.”
Sorry chump, it is your logic that is failing.
We were talking about K.C. certification. King County does not certify the election based on what the State totals will be, or contingent on how close the Statewide the election will be. The “reasonable certainty” only applies to the K.C. results when K.C. is certifying them.
How darling… Distributed Republican Vote Fraud…
Alan @ 91
“My mistake. My apologies. My fingers made me do it!”
No problem. I just hope you weren’t implying you were eating chili at the time.
(Flip reference noted and appreciated)
DJ at 80-
Mom would tell me how awful that is and wink.
Get a life!
dj @ 85: “It should be no surprise that hard scientists, biologists, and social scientists end up doing these things. These are folks are researchers, and probably have a PhD, which in the sciences is a degree granted only after a candidate completes a substantial and original research project.”
Not to sound too flip, but so what? Just because you have a PhD in one field doesn’t make you an expert in all fields. Why is a evolution biologist automatically considered “an expert” in the 2004 election, especially one with political views so obviously partisan? Why automatically discount anything and everything coming out of the so-called “experts” hired by the GOP or BIAW but accepting at face value from some liberal partisan hack out of his field? To be sure, I’m not advocating not calling BS on the garbage coming out of the state GOP; I’m asking for the same level of skepticism on the other side.
Goldy,
Why is it that Stefan has a column in the Stranger and you don’t? Ouch.
Goldy is right….King County is no worst that Chicago, Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee, or Harare, Zimbabwe. [They are all controlled by commie lib socialists, and all shit holes. Any taxPAYER should have left these “Hillary Villages” years ago.
They need to have stefan there for someone to laugh at. Basically the same reason that you are allowed to post here.
chardonnayWasDebbieDoesDallas
That may be the best post name yet.
Say Goldy I watched the President’s press conference and he made that geologist from New Hampshire seem like a bit of a light weight.
Jon @ 85
“Not to sound too flip, but so what? Just because you have a PhD in one field doesn’t make you an expert in all fields.”
I agree that having a PhD does not guarantee anything about the end-product, scientific impartiality, etc. But, it seems that you were wondering why evolutionary biologists and geologists end up doing this kind of out-of-field research. My answer is that they end up selecting themselves to do the work because they find it interesting and have research experience. Of course, many people find the same research interesting, so why do we hear about geologists instead of cab drivers dong it? It is because this particular group (PhD holding scientists, in general) is more likely to have the tools and skills to do research, they are more likely to complete the work, and they are more likely to present the result at a conference.
Yes, they may be amateurs in the specific research topic (as is our cab driver), but scientists will generally have a high degree of skills in general research methods, including advanced statistics, quantitative modeling skills, a good understanding of proper research design, excellent library access for finding background material (and skills to make good use of the libraries), skills in presenting and writing up research results, and a large network of colleagues to draw on for field-specific information and help. Once you have a good research toolkit, filling in the substantive details of the area (voting machines, exit polls, etc.) is not all that difficult. Finally, these are people who routinely do research and present it at national conferences on their own topics. They already know most of the protocols for doing presentations regardless of field.
That is why we see a high proportion of scientists doing these out-of-field exercises. That is not a suggestion on my part that their research will be of uniformly high quality. The research must be evaluated with a skeptical eye whether it is a cabbie or a nuclear physicist doing the work. (No offense to cabbies intended—I used them as an example because I once was a cabbie).
oops, I mean Jon @ 99
dj
If this Ohio “history-changing” fishing expedition had any chance, the place would be crawling with lawyers and journalists (both trying to make a name for themselves), not PhD’s on paid sabbaticals.
still in denial? I can’t wait until Tuesday. double good news day. #1 Chelan County and #2 Hillary Campaign fruad court case starts. Will this hurt her in 08?
Ah, the fresh scent of liberal stupidity and paranoid delusions so gloriously displayed here (sound of bird chirping in the background).
A veritable bouquet of insolent partisan rancor.
Who can forget those insigtful HA posts sporting small portraits of our presidentheld aloft by dog feces.
And let’s not forget the ever-abundant misogyny perpetrated in more recents posts by the finest of liberal gentlemen.
To think that this all started with the paranoid delusions of sinister and highly unsubstantiated voter irregularities in Ohio. Yes, indeed, Kenneth Blackwell used mind control to divert attention away from the ballot storage lockers and prompty stuffed all those hundreds of thousands of ballots down his pants. Thanks for the tip Goldy! Mystery solved!
zip @ 106
“If this Ohio ‘history-changing’ fishing expedition had any chance, the place would be crawling with lawyers and journalists (both trying to make a name for themselves), not PhD’s on paid sabbaticals.”
I agree with you that it is probably a fishing trip—if there was good pickin’s, the press would be all over it. This is exactly what happened in FL in 2001 when a consortium of major news organizations did a recount. (They found that if all ballots had been recounted, as the FL Supreme Court had ordered, Gore would have won narrowly).
Scientists seem to be driven by high-risk, high-stakes research, though, and sometimes they do make good on their hunting instincts!
dj @ 104:
I see your point, but it seems like comparing a captian who flys fighters to the captian in the quartermaster corps. Yes, they both completed basic training and officer training, but to say the pilot could do the quartermaster’s job or the other way around would be a strech.
But, for the sake of argument, let’s grant you your point. That said, his assumptions and obvious biases going into his research makes the conclusions highly suspect. Let me put it this way: If a PhD researched the Washington election and concluded that Rossi won by a wide margin, but you found out he/she identified themselves, say, as a devout Christian and gun owner, wouldn’t that raise HUGE question marks in your head?
dj @ 109 – Oh think again before you so crudely attempt to distort actual history. The media conclusion was exactly opposite what you have stated. Before TorridMonkeyJoe starts shrilly screaming “Cites? Cites?”, here are a few for your enjoyment:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/me.....t_4-3.html
http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/20...../main.html
http://www.fraudfactor.com/ffselcounties.html
And don’t even start with “Well, CNN and PBS are right wing controlled organizations”…. I’ll breaking down from laughing at you.
DJ
“Ummmm. . . the election ended?”
Better Tell Judge Bridges that! Seems that he tthought there was enough evidence to the contrary even before all the newest revelations, to keep the trial alive.
If by some turn of events he says the election is over then the nightmare of Queen TAXUSALLBILLIONS and Gregoire has just started! A 12% increase in spending and 10 Billion in new taxes sure doesn’t follow her no new taxes mantra.
Hell even my democrat friends who support her are agreeing this is not what they voted for! I can see the campaign adds already with all her no tax statements followed by all the BS regulations and Tax happy taxing and spending!
And here is one for the smug Mr. Zapporo.
Definitian of satisfaction: watching Gregoire move out of the governors house under the judges direction…SATISFACTION!
Judging from what I have seen from her thus far she would never leave, she would claim devine intervention, or maybe just call it an emergency (as they did on all their tax and spend happy bills!
Goldy –
I LOVE IT!!
“…and while a number of disturbing mistakes have been uncovered” (re. King County Elections) “– mistakes that can clearly be fixed – they would have been insignificant if not for the bizarrely close gubernatorial election. Thus to attack our election as a “total mess” while dismissing the massive problems reported in Ohio, Florida and elsewhere, is an act of shameless hypocrisy.”
I haven’t even read the flame fest that is above me , but this is gonna be a great one! I can’t wait to see how our intellectuals respond. But yet…”Prof. Mitteldorf addresses straight on the common perception that people like him are conspiracy theorists. Prof. Mitteldorf then proceeds to describe the “sober professionals, none who seem overtly loony” he met at the conference, who have reported to have uncovered massive voting irregularities throughout the nation.”
Oh, that must mean their all liberal “bungholers”, right?
*they’re
zapporo @ 111
Thanks for pointing out that my parenthetical statement in post 109 is misleading. You made a good call. Indeed, I either suffered from selective memory or from getting my news from NPR. I apologize for the mistake.
I had not seen the results from the first study you cite, done by an accounting firm (BDO Seidman). The article says that Bush would have won FL under most recount scenarios.
The second article references the NORC study. NORC is a highly respected research center at the University of Chicago. A rather boring article from NORC on the results was published in The American Statistician in Feb 2003 and can be found here:
http://www.amstat.org/misc/Pre.....allots.pdf
I just examined the paper, and will summarize the results (mostly from Table 11 in the paper). It presents 9 different recount scenarios and the winner of each. Indeed, for of the recount scenarios, Bush wins by a margin of 212 to 493 votes. Under 5 scenarios, Gore wins by a margin of 42 to 171 votes. By one scenario, Bush wins by 110 or Gore by 107 depending on whether the three counters had to agree unanimously or by majority.
What were the scenarios? Here is a very brief summary:
The recount ordered by FL Sup. Court Bush by 493
Complete hand recount Bush by 430
Gore’s original recount request Bush by 225
65 county standards w/overvotes Gore by 171
Most restrictive, no overvotes Gore by 107
Most inclusive Gore or Bush
Bush standard Gore by 105
Prevailing statewide standard Gore by 60
Palm Beach Rules Gore by 42
So, if the FL Supreme Court decision had gone forward or if Gore had gotten his original (limited) recount, Bush would have won. Ironically, if Bush’s standard had been used (accept chads with 2 detached corners, any affirmative mark on optical ballots, includes overvotes, and accepting the certified results for Volusia County) for a recount, Gore would have won. Go figure!
GS @ 112
“Better Tell Judge Bridges that! Seems that he tthought there was enough evidence to the contrary even before all the newest revelations, to keep the trial alive.”
You twit! I did not claim the trial was over. I said the election is over!
This has been wonderful! and I got All Tools to shut up by 5:48
I win!!
Food for thought…when democratic legislators block a requirement for voter photo ID isnt that a form of organized fraud???
dj @118 – Thanks for the link. Now that’s one survey that I can respect.
Based on recent results, a scantron vote system is probably the most viable voting system currently available. It avoids the problems with electronic voting machines, it provides a human readable paper trail, and it does not suffer the hanging chad malady. With a single, widely-used voting system, voter education would be simplified and as a result more voters would be enfranchised.
anti-cynical @113 – Not really smug. Just looking for that “fair and balanced”. May I make a suggestion?
Instead of focusing negatively on someone that is admittedly and obviously brilliant and humorous (otherwise why would you call your self such), why don’t you pick a liberal callsign that stands for something?
Here are some free examples:
DemocratsRockTotally!
ProudLiberal
PooFlagsRockMyWorld
AngryFaggotWithHurtingBungHole
AlbertGoreisMyInternetInventinHero!
NancyPelosiISNOTASHREW
You get the idea.
anti-cynical @113 – Mea Culpa – I left one out
SpongeBobLiberal
I’ve always admired your sense of humor. As funny as passing gas in an elevator…
You’re the one fixated on bungholes perhaps?
Tsk Tsk…
Zapporo Fan @125 – Do I detect a bit of homophobia in your post? Isn’t your liberal domain warmly accepting of homosexuals? Isn’t that what you stand for? And didn’t Goldy just post on that subject? Didn’t you read his post? I’m deeply disappointed in your reply.
Conservatives stand for something, are not just anti-this or anti-that. It takes courage to stand for something, a quality that you obviously do not possess.
Homosexuality is wrong.
Get over it.
I’m not homosexual but what’s wrong with it? I thought you righties were all for liberty as long as you don’t hurt anyone. It’s the libs that are supposed to totalitarian.
You seem to be the homophobic one, failed wingnut comedian..
Donnageddon @ 120
Some people have a wife to go home to… woops sorry didn’t mean to rub it in like that. I see you post here maybe even more that tangentjoe, is this the only reason why you are still alive and spending your SS? might be a start toward solvency if we take away your HA plivledges.
Spongebob Liberal and Zapporo Fan @127
I call bull$#@! on that one.
It was degenerate fascist liberals that wanted to force the Boy Scouts, a private not-for-profit organization, to accept as a leader, a person whose sexual preferences were diametrically opposed to that organization’s values. This was dragged all the way to the Supreme Court.
http://supct.law.cornell.edu/s.....99.ZS.html
Talk about liberal fascist totalitarian political correctness B.S.. Thank goodness for the reasonableness of the Supreme Court.
And Gee, Thanks libs for soaking the Boy Scouts with a nice legal bill while trying to prevent them from doing good in this degenerate world.
For you to exclaim “I’m not homosexual but what’s wrong with it?” seems to prove my point entirely.
(Should I sign this Liberal Spongebob Idiot Sucks?)
You suck still Zapporo…
Gay people have served this country and their fellow human beings without hurting anybody in all capacities – as soldiers, teachers, politicians, etc. and yes, scout leaders throughout history as much as you want to deny it. Gay men have given their lives for you, jerkoff.
The golden rule applies to gays and lesbians the same way it applies to anyone.
The boy scouts won their case and I will keep my kids out of the boy scouts. The U.S. Military is a little bit more tolerant by comparison – at least the “official” policy is don’t ask don’t tell. Now only if those witch hunts would stop.
I call bullsh*t on you, intolerant homophobe and it is you who is the fascist.
All Tools @ 128
“I see you post here maybe even more that tangentjoe, is this the only reason why you are still alive and spending your SS? might be a start toward solvency if we take away your HA plivledges.”
Oh, All tools, you are such a joy to read again! Oh and tell your wife she was wonderful yesterday! But she really should stop complaining about your “little republican dick” when I am buggering her. It is in poor taste.
alan @ 78:
Yes, isn’t it great that we live in a country where inflation causes your home to appreciate more than all the wages you’ll earn in your entire life? Only in America.
They don’t let you out much, do they?
Look up housing prices as a multiple of yearly income. The US has one of the lowest multiples in the developed world.
Houses in Seattle are only expensive if you haven’t shopped for real estate overseas.
dj @ 96
No problem, I just checked, and all my digits are present and accounted for! Fingers reporting for duty, sir!
zip @ 106
I’m afraid you have a point.
GS @ 112
You don’t have any democrat friends, so please spare us this b.s.
Cheesy Chuckie @ 121
No.
Spongebob @130 – Your small green liberal heart must be palpitating. Too bad none of that life giving oxygen is making way to your brain.
Again, you quite readily make my point. I made a statement of fact. I did not tell you what to believe, who to associate with, or how to live your life. No, kind Sir, that is a greasy liberal job that you appear to relish. Let’s examine your thoughts briefly as played out in this blog:
Gay men have given their lives for you, jerkoff.ight women have given their lives for your freedom. Should I add “you hateful homophile misogynist” ?.
…I will keep my kids out of the boy scouts.tly. Exactly! You don’t mention what you do stand for, you simply prefer to rail against others and what others have accomplished. That was my point. You’ve made it perfectly plain. Bravo!
Go in peace Spongebob, Go in Peace
women have given their lives for your freedom.
Excuse me, dear jerkoff. I’ve made a sin of ommission. How un-PC of me! What am I guilty of? Reverse-PC?
You don’t mention what you do stand for
You haven’t either from what I’ve read of your miserable scrawlings. And why should I waste my time stating what I stand for to the likes of you?
And what do you stand for? Stinking up the place with your lousy jokes and then complaining that the rest of have no sense of humor?
Go in Peace
What does that mean? Surrender? You and your kind have more or less declared war on sanity. There isn’t going to be any surrender. Never.
53You guys are freaking hopeless. Any excuse to not have to provide a photo ID.
I realize that there are decent reforms going on and I mentioned them in an earlier post. But the best thing is to include photo ID in those same reforms. And OMG what about normalizing the way states collect voter data so all it takes to see if somebody is voting twice is run a simple albeit time consuming query.
Watching the dems and reps gyrate on voter reform leaves me with the distinct impression that the only people who truly want reform are us citizens. Well not some of you nutballs that post here. But the reasonable ones. Hell even Goldy has advocated for reform.
Far as I can tell the vote count in Ohio and Florida in both
Bush wins were accurate to a point that any bank would envy.
The election officials allow republican election workers take
blank ballots home with them at night. Then, as they need them,
they bring them back. We will trade two Bush for one Gregoire
and one Cantwell.
dont forget the 90,000 felons eliminated from the vote rolls, along with the 50,000 that were legal voters.
Don @ 135
Don’t be afraid. Your allies in the media will imply a Kerry victory no matter how the geologist’s vote count turns out.
Spongebob @139 – It looks like your pinheadedness is getting ready to pop just like a green pus-infested zit.
Just a few quick questions before I taunt you again –
Why do you post if you don’t stand for anything and your life is basically meaningless?
Do you enjoy being publicly ridiculed with your self-serving PC bulls**t? (That was fun).
Do you even understand what the word fascist means?
Do you often use the term “jerkoff” in mixed company? at work? in the presence of clergy? when you’re hanging out with friends? This seems to be one of your favorite terms. You are either consistently unimaginative and/or extremely perverse.
When you grow up, get your own name, undergo humor transplant surgery, pop that liberal pinhead zit and actually write something of substance, we can talk again.
I’ll be happy to laugh at you any time, Spongebob.
I mean with you, definitely laugh with you.
Hey Zapporo. You see Gunner Palace yet? There’s a scene of a soldier giving a spongebob doll to an Iraqi child. It’s not made up cuz’ it’s a documentary. Do you know what that long word means?
Kind of makes you wonder about that troop, eh winger?
Go in peace wingnut. Rest easy that I’m laughing AT you and your delusions of being a legend in your own mind.
Holy Crap Spongebob!
I’ve finally got it.
You’re Magneto!
Zapporo Wannabe
Just look at that evil bucktooth grin.
It has left-wing kook written all over it.
Your defense of the Muiti-billion dollar highway lobby is noted. Must make you real proud to know your support of the legislature raising taxes on us working stiffs for 1/4 of a Seattle Viaduct.