According to Jonathan Stein at Mother Jones, Cook Political Report has just changed their ratings on 10 House races, all of them with Republican incumbents, and all of them moving in the Democratic direction. And one of these, of course, is WA-08, where Darcy Burner looks increasingly well situated to unseat Dave Reichert.
CA-04 — OPEN (Doolittle) — Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CO-04 — Marilyn Musgrave — Lean Republican to Toss Up
CT-04 — Chris Shays — Lean Republican to Toss Up
IL-10 — Mark Kirk — Lean Republican to Toss Up
NM-02 — OPEN (Pearce) — Likely Republican to Lean Republican
NY-29 — Randy Kuhl — Lean Republican to Toss Up
NC-08 — Robin Hayes — Lean Republican to Toss Up
OH-01 — Steve Chabot — Lean Republican to Toss Up
VA-02 — Thelma Drake — Likely Republican to Lean Republican
WA-08 — Dave Reichert — Lean Republican to Toss Up
Both Cook and CQ have now upgraded WA-08 from “leans Republican” to “toss up” and “no clear favorite” respectively. I’m guessing Rothenberg will follow shortly.
UPDATE:
Here’s the summary analysis from Cook:
WA-08 Dave Reichert
Lean Republican to Toss Up
This high-tech, upper-income district in the Seattle suburbs is prototypical Obama terrain. Although it is likely Reichert’s reputation as a law-and-order moderate will allow him to outperform McCain by a handful of points, it simply may not be enough. Even if she is slightly to the district’s left, Democrat Darcy Burner is running a more focused campaign than she ran in 2006 and still lacks a record to attack. Reichert, who will not be able to spend Burner and the DCCC dollar-for-dollar this time, will look more like an underdog this time around – which is not a terrible image to possess in this climate. This race appears headed to another photo finish.
Since not one right wing asshole here has ever articulated one single reason to vote for Big Hair this is no surprise. Combine that with Big Hair’s ties to the singularly most unpopular President in all time, and you get a solid chance for Dems to win an otherwise conservative district. Ouch!
It looks like Dino Rossi is NOT filing as a “Republican” this year. Instead, he has filed as “Prefers G.O.P. Party”.
If someone wants a self-professed “Republican” as Governor this year, there is presently a choice between John W. Aiken, Jr. and Javier O. Lopez.
At least Dave Reichert is not afraid to run under the “Republican” label.
http://wei.secstate.wa.gov/oso.....filed.aspx
@1 More pertinent is the fact that 8th C.D.’s demographics are changing. All that commercial growth in downtown Bellevue has brought in blue collars and pink collars who vote Democratic.
@1…BBGOP…
What – can’t you read? I’ve articulated several reasons to vote for Dave Reichert, all of which make him hands down a better candidate than The Darcy.
The Darcy will support higher taxes on the most productive of citizens.
The Darcy is a cut and run advocate – her Irresponsible Plan is the epitome of folly.
The Darcy is high tariff, protectionist, job killer.
The Darcy supports enemies of the U.S. and spits in the face of our friends.
Dave Reichert supports retaining the Bush tax cuts.
Dave Reichert won’t abandon our troops in the field – he supports the very successful surge.
Dave Reichert supports the Columbia free trade agreement.
Dave Reichert recognizes who our allies are, and he supports them. He also recognizes who are enemies are, and he refuses to give them aid and comfort.
Dave Reichert is pro-Second Amendment and gun owner rights.
Now…would someone tell me what in The Darcy’s record – she has one? Non-criminal, that is – that commends her for any office?
She’s touted as an ex-Microsoft program manager, yet no one has detailed any accomplishments to her credit in that position. And her tenure as the Ames Lake Homeowners Assn. Prexy – what great coup was hers in this august position?
So far, all I’ve heard in her favor is that she’s a lickspittle of the netroots, a lacky of the Daly Kus, a tool of MoveOn, a stooge of HuffPo, and a dishonorary HA Happy Hooligan.
From what I can tell, she’s just another far-left liberal, and boring to boot.
The Piper
The Piper is a WATB.
From what I can tell, he’s just another far-right dinosaur, and yells at all the kids to stay off his lawn.
Pooper I can read just trying to find out why your so-called defense of Big Hair has to rely on attacking his opponent? Could it be his “accomplishments” as the 489th most powerful Congressman aren’t enough? HEHE!
@6…BBGOP…
How many are there in the House of Representatives?
The Piper
Pooper,
Your writings are becoming more and more shrill. Why don’t you just give in and admit that your party has screwed the pooch?
Why do you want to continue the failed policies of the current administration? The definition of insanity is to perform the same set of tasks and each time expecting a different result.
Kind of like your writings. You keep on, yet you get the same result…….your ass handed to you in a sling.
Not that we mind obliging you!
@6,7
The House of Representatives membership is capped at 435 members. For Hair Spray to be ranked 489th you know he’s got to be really awful.
Piper done pulled out a good one.
@8…Carl…
Thank you for your concern about me – I know your bombast hides a gentle soul, so I don’t take your screeds personally.
BTW…how’s the health? From time to time past concerns in that regard come to mind, and I do take a moment to offer up, if you know what I mean.
It’s always my hope that we can disagree without being disagreable.
Cheers!
The Piper
@9…M…
Or bbgop (he no longer gets caps) is simply clueless, making stuff up as he goes along.
The Piper
Scott:
My health is as fine as cardiomyopathy allows. No running, no repeated heavy lifting. The ICD is going to be replaced sometime this summer as the battery is wearing down. Thankfully is has never shocked me. Not really interested in a two second long “mule kick to the chest” as the doctor describes it. On the other hand the alternative is rather permanent.
Thank you for asking after me.
MLF
Look at all those races where the Republican’s chances of wining are being down graded. Which, of course, means they’ll have to spend more money than planned to keep those seats. Money they don’t have.
This is getting good.
Piper. You are an Idiot with a capital ‘I’. You just don’t get it.
Your talking points are yesterday’s news.
Piper @ 4:
Okay, Piper, I’ll give you credit for giving it a shot at defending Reichart’s record. It’s a tough job, and it takes a big man to give it a try. In fact, it’s the best shot at it we’ve seen so far – the only one I can recall seeing.
So here goes my deconstruction:
I’m ignoring all the swipes at Darcy, because that wasn’t the question. The question, which every previous wingnut has failed to address was why anybody should vote FOR Reichart, not why they should vot AGAINST Darcy.
As for the rest of your points, I feel compelled to point out that a sitting Congressman should be able to say more than he “SUPPORTS” something or other. That’s meaningless dribble. He/She should be able to point to actual achievements in the areas mentioned. Otherwise, we get nonsense statements and platitudes for which there is no accountability, such as “Congressman XYZ supports tax cuts for everybody, cutting government waste, increasing government services, higher wages & better jobs for workers, stronger national defense, etc., etc.”. See my point?
Okay, now to specifics:
“…supports retaining the Bush tax cuts”.
Well, for me that is a vote for passing on an enormous debt to our grandchildren, one which I couldn’t support. So I think this is a reason for voting AGAINST Reichart, not for him. But that’s just me.
“…won’t abandon our troops in the field…. supports the very successful troop surge.”
Well, I certainly hope nobody abandons our troops in the field. I assume this was another backhanded swipe at Dary’s plan. But it isn’t a fair characterization. Even a full withdrawal isn’t “abandoning our troops in the field”, it is bringing them home. And since the surge is so successful, why don’t we just go home now – unless you are saying we need a “permanant surge”????? In other words, Reichart wants to continue Bush’s plan in Iraq. Good luck with that campaign theme.
“…supports the Columbia free trade agreement”.
I’ve heard some negative comments about this agreement, but I haven’t studied it myself yet, so I will refrain from commenting further on this issue. (Hey, I’m just one guy! I can’t become an expert at EVERYTHING!!!!)
“…recognizes who our allies are…”
Obviously, you haven’t been listening to McCain’s comments lately. He doesn’t seem to know who Sunnis and Shiites are, whether they are in Iran or Iraq, or where terrorists are being trained.
“… is pro Second Amendment….”
So am I. I believe that a well-trained militia is necessary for the preservation of freedom. I also like to own and shoot guns (I do target shooting, not hunting). But I also believe that every right is subject to some reasonable restrictions (you can’t yell fire in a crowded theatre with impunity despite the 1st Amendment), and there is no rational overwhelming need for someone to own an AK47 which can be easily converted to automatic, except for use in school shootings, etc. So this vague pronouncement doesn’t carry any weight in my books.
Now, I notice that you didn’t mention any legislation he has initiated or co-sponsored, any compromises he has brokered, any specific spending proposals he has led the fight either for or against, etc. In other words, at best the qualifications you mentioned can only be characterized as “positions” he might take on future legislation, initiated and pushed through by others – almost as if he has yet to get the job.
Can’t Reichart put forth anything on his own?
@4
“Dave Reichert supports retaining the Bush tax cuts.” Piper and Rossi intend to dump a mountain of debt on their grandkids.
“Dave Reichert won’t abandon our troops in the field – he supports the very successful surge.” Piper and Rossi support a war the was started on lies, refuse to face reality, and could give a shit about our troops.
“Dave Reichert supports the Columbia free trade agreement.” The issue that’s on everybody’s mind. It’s all over, boys, Rossi wins. Pack it in.
“Dave Reichert recognizes who our allies are, and he supports them. He also recognizes who are enemies are, and he refuses to give them aid and comfort.” Umm, hating Democrats doesn’t count. Neither does hating France.
“Dave Reichert is pro-Second Amendment and gun owner rights.” So what? We’re all armed to the teeth. Go fuck yourself, Piper.
Michael @ 14: Speaking of Republicans spending money on elections – any word yet about the scandal involving the audits of the fund to re-elect Republicans in the house? Last I heard the fund was millions of dollars short (they had less than half of what they believed they had), and they were blaming the guy running the operation of embezzelment.
But this wasn’t some unheard-of bookeeper. This was a guy who managed the campaign funds and bookeeping and reporting of LOTS of Republican campaigns, as well as that of the Republican Committee. I’m wondering if he wasn’t shuffling money between different campaigns so as to conceal it’s source, and that’s the reason for the discrepencies? Have any campaign finance laws been violated? How about money laundering laws? Maybe the Republicans in D.C. have every reason for the details not to become public until well after the next election?
GEE WONDER HOW DARCYS LAW SUIT IS GOING.JUST ASKIN
@18
I forgot all about that. Yeah, haven’t heard anything in a few months on that one. There’s too many scandals to keep up with.
rhp6033@16
Excellent, absolutely right-on. Hope Darcy reads it and you allow her to use it.
rhp6033,
‘“… is pro Second Amendment….”
So am I.’
So is Darcy. She is licensed to carry a handgun and owns one.
Wingdings like Piper Scott are so stuck in the 1970s!
16 To sum up deconstruction, Reichert basically supports all the policies, programs and practices of the Bush administration.
You know…the stuff that’s brought us things like:
$4.25 a gallon for regular, and rising fast.
A trillion dollars or so added to the national debt.
Skyrocketing inflation combined with rapidly increasing unemployment, no longer deniable despite the government’s phony figures.
Massive, unconstitutional invasion of privacy of any and all citizens, including scrutiny of all communications and finances, with potential seizure of assets of anyone who “may be doing something wrong”. (Oh, but we get to keep our guns. Whoopee!)
The adoption of the practice of torture of arbitrarily-determined “evildoers”.
A hundred and who-knows-how-many thousand American troops stuck where there used to be a country named Iraq, unsure of what they’re supposed to be doing other than running around with targets on their butts.
Perhaps a million or so Iraqi dead, and an untold number in misery. (Ah, but they don’t count. They’re the bad guys, aren’t they?)
A consumer market flooded with unsafe products. The “solution” to this is apparently to make it difficult to make it harder for people who buy the crap to sue the companies they got it from if it does them harm.
A health care “system” that’s rapidly turning into “KMAGYOYO”.
If all that makes your nipples nice and hard, go ahead and vote for Reichert.
Art @ 23: Not to mention that Bush is apparantly trying to put a guarantee in place which ensures a U.S. military presence in Iraq for decades to come. I guess his buddies want to get a bunch of long-term, no-bid contracts in place before Bush leaves office – passing the bill to Obama to manage somehow, so they can then complain about how spending increased during the Obama administration.
Like they did early this year, when Republicans were pointing out spending increases under the Democratic Congress – without bothering to be honest enough to admit that they left town without even approving a budget, leaving that task to the Democrats, and passed on the military costs for the Democrats to handle under a threat they they must “adopt it in it’s entirity, or I will withhold ammo shipments and troops will dies and you will take the blame”.
Yea, it’s time for a change. Time to get McCain out of Washington. (Did he resign his Senate seat to run for the Presidency? My guess is that he didn’t, so if he loses he goes back to the Senate. Too bad – he needs to go back home where he can spend his days yelling at the kids to get off their lawn).
My bet is that race will be close enough for a couple of recounts.