Obama	Romney
98.9% probability	1.1% probability
311 electoral votes	227 electoral votes

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In the past several days, three new polls have been released that weigh in on the Washington state gubernatorial race. In all three polls, former Congressman Jay Inslee (D) leads state AG Rob McKenna (R) by narrow margins---always within the margin of error. [...] We can jointly analyze the three polls together. Our "meta-poll" has a total of 2,119 "voters" of which 2,025 offered a preference for Inslee or McKenna. Inslee took 1035 (48.8%) of these votes, and McKenna took 991 (46.8%) votes. There were 93 (4.4%) undecideds.

The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee wins 751,986 times, and McKenna wins 243,119 times, suggesting that, in an election held now, Inslee would win with a 75.6% probability and McKenna would win with a 24.4% probability:

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As we look forward to Barack Obama's second inauguration (and fourth Oath of Office*), let us hearken back to the day he was re-elected. I refer, of course, to the Monday following the second Wednesday in December (in 2012, that was December 17). That's when all 538 Presidential and 538 Vice Presidential votes were cast. That's when 332 of those Electors -- a clear, solid majority of the electorate -- voted for the winning ticket, Obama and Biden. You may think you were voting for Obama/Biden or Romney/Ryan (or even for one of the other pairs on the ballot) on November 6, but you weren't. In truth, you were voting for slates of Electors, who are the only Americans who actually cast Presidential and Vice Presidential ballots.

You weren't an Elector, nor was I. However, I was a whole lot closer to matriculating at the Electoral College than any of our readers -- had Maria Ehsan, the Elector chosen at the 7th Congressional District's Democratic caucus back in May, been unable to attend the Electoral College meeting in Olympia, yours truly (the Alternate Elector from WA-07) would have taken her place as one of Washington's 12 Electors.

So I was right there in the State Reception Room in Olympia's Legislative Building at noon on December 17, peering over the shoulders of the Electors as they cast their votes.... [Read more... ]