Looks like I spoke too soon. It’s not a split decision after all, at least not in terms of the expectations game that drives political coverage and momentum.
Obama won big in North Carolina, the way he was expected to win weeks ago, but significantly better than recent polls suggested. Meanwhile, it’s still “too close to call” in Indiana, with a lot of precincts left to report from the Gary area. That means Obama beat expectations there too.
But more important than my opinion is that of the legacy media, who seem to think it’s a big night for Obama too. And that’s the spin that’s gonna give uncommitted superdelegates the excuse to swing to Obama.
The game’s not over, but we’re all pretty sure how it’s gonna end.
UPDATE [7:39]:
Clinton is speaking, and it doesn’t sound like she’s conceding.
UPDATE [7:43]:
Q: What do Hillary Clinton and I have in common?
A: We both plug our websites asking for money.
UPDATE [9:15]:
I just got an email from SEIU with the subject header: “Obama: Clearly the Presumptive Presidential Nominee.” So I guess that’s it, huh. It’s all over.
Q: What do Hillary Clinton and I have in common?
A: You won’t be the Democratic nominee for President.
There are no results coming in out of Lake county, Indiana. For those interested, the unofficial results for Lake County will be posted here. The Secretary of State’s results page is here.
After tonight, Hillary can no longer win the popular vote or the pledged delegate count. She has no argument left. Tonight was a defining moment…Obama will be the nominee.
Perhaps the most significant result of today’s voting is this one:
“Voting in Indiana was carried out under a state law, recently upheld by the Supreme Court, that requires voters to produce a valid photo ID. About a dozen nuns in their 80s and 90s at St. Mary’s Convent in South Bend were denied ballots because they lacked the necessary identification.”
http://tinyurl.com/4j5g6u
Bush’s most enduring legacy (besides going down in history as the worst president of all time) will be a Supreme Court that decided elderly American nuns can’t vote in their own country.
What’s next for these ersatz “justices” — reversing Brown v. Board of Education and reinstating Plessy v. Ferguson? From now on they and their decisions should be known as the Injustices of the Extreme Court.
Hm… Looks like http://www.lakecountyin.org just went off line.
Turn out the lights,
The party’s over
Okay, all you Hillaryites out there, we love you. Now, step into the light. Let’s have a group hug and go beat McCain.
I’m disappointed that Clinton has signed on to that cockamamie “gas tax holiday” idea. It’s a bad idea from every perspective: It’ll starve the country of funds needed for infrastructure repairs, cost the economy domestic construction jobs, and probably won’t lower pump prices; but if it does, that will increase gas consumption — setting the stage for higher prices — and send more of the money you pay at the pump overseas to our enemies. This is pandering politics, not smart economics. Overall, too, Obama seems to have a better economic game with broad relief for the beleaguered middle class, while Clinton clings to the hoary old strategem of “targeted” relief that you somehow never qualify for.
I so look forward to finally confronting McCain outside of the primary fight.
His free ride is over.
A united Democratic party cannot lose. Time to fight the real fight. The fight against the massive abuse of our country by the wingnut minority.
Freedom is ours, if we are brave enough to fight the traitors who have defiled our county for too long.
Newsweek says Politico’s Ben Smith says Tim Russert said Clinton canceled her morning talk show appearances tomorrow — a sign she’s expecting the roof to cave in on her when Indiana’s final returns are in.
Although Obama’s strength in Lake County — which went 4-to-1 for him in early returns — is expected to be diluted by later returns from the rural white precincts of the county, the city of Gary’s black vote may be enough to overcome Hillary’s 17,000-vote statewide lead.
The total Republican vote in today’s Indiana primary is around 400,000; Obama and Hillary each have in the neighborhood of 600,000, which means three-fourths of the voters voted for a Democratic candidate. And Indiana is a rock-solid Republican state!
This can’t be reassuring to the strategists at RNC headquarters when their candidates get only a quarter of the vote on real estate they thought they owned.
It looks like Clinton might win by a couple thousand votes. I hope she won’t use this to continue the vanity campaign.
It could go either way by a small margin. And if Clinton “wins”, the Corporate Media will do all they can to keep the contest going.
Let us hope clearer heads prevail. This could be Clinton’s finest hour, to unite the party and clear the way for the final push to ridding the world of Republicanism.
Lake County was going 4-1 for Obama earlier? The margin now is 65%-35% for Obama. What precincts are left — a little over 40% of Lake County still hasn’t reported.
This one could go either way.
Obama is the presumed nominee. No doubt now.
That is an amazing and powerful thing for an old guy like me. Well done.
Now it is time to focus not only on defeating another old guy (that shouldn’t be too tough), but also building a force behind Barack Obama that can really change Washington DC in the first two years of the Obama Administration.
That means we need a landslide, and bigger majorities in the House and Senate.
I wonder who the latest addition to the ranks of superdelegates, Don Cazayoux (D-LA6th) supports for President?
@11 I misprinted — meant to say 3-to-1, i.e. Obama was getting 75% to Clinton’s 25%, but that spread was expected to narrow somewhat as the rural returns came in later.
Clinton and Edwards have a brief chance at greatness now. Not for either to be President but to be a true leaders in troubled times.
From Edwards POV, he should endorse Obama ASAP, but better yet would be to coordinate with Hillary, That coordination could build a truly historic team for reform.
IF she is a patriot, she will announce tomorrow that the vioters have spoken and BHO is the candidate. At the same time, she should make a deal with him to work together on the huge number of issues on which they agree, her in the Senate ,,,
healthcare
a “smart” answer to Iraq
rebuilding of the US alliances
restructure the tax system so it is progressive and productive
If Edwards is a patriot this is his last chance to bargain with Obama from strength. He should ask for the AG job and in that capacity he can lead a much needed effort at corporate reform and maybe even tort reform to benefit the average guy!
There is far more on this plate than any one person can handle, to clone a term ..
it takes a dream team to reform an injured country .
Well, Clinton does at least have an excellent chance to score stunning victories in West Virginia on May 13 and Kentucky on May 20.
I think Barrack will be sayin’ mi Caza youx Caza.
Hope Clinton bows out gracefully.
Lake County is 55 – 45 now. Clinton will win 51 to 49
Should make no difference, the outcome is as certain as it was at the end of Feb.
But… dear gawd.. let rationality return to the Clinton camp. It is over.
Lets start concentrating on dragging the Repugs to the lower levels of Hell they are destined to reside in!
@1
Good one.
I wonder if Clinton will still win in West Virginia next Tuesday if she withdraws from the race in the next day or two?
@ 16, Richard, shut the fuck up! :)
@ 22 was meant in jest. Unless @ 16 wasn’t. Which in that case @ 22 goes back in to full force.
I have new Indiana numbers now; with 100% of precincts reporting, Hillary won statewide by 12,017 votes (51% to 49%).
Maybe it is time for Obama to learn how to use firearms and get some good photo opportunities firing a shotgun or hunting rifle? And maybe be seen going to other churches? There are plenty of United Church of Christ congregations he could attend while on the road campaigning across the country. Most of which are much more diverse than his home church in Chicago.
@25 All liberals should arm, not just Obama’s supporters! Just in case.
@ 26 way ahead of you.
Here’s AP’s analysis in the fishwrapper:
“Hillary Rodham Clinton’s defeat in North Carolina Tuesday took away her last best chance at the White House. The results dented if not doomed her hopes of convincing superdelegates to disregard Obama’s lead in delegates, states won and popular vote to nominate her. ‘Senator Clinton did not get out of the night what she needed,’ said North Carolina Rep. Brad Miller, an undecided superdelegate. ‘To use a basketball analogy, she traded baskets. And she needed to do much better than that this late in the contest with her down 150 or 160 pledged delegates.'”
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c.....lysis.html
Rabbit,
A couple of my Hillary-leaning friends expressed discomfort about her gas tax proposal. Like you did. That is one of the remarkable distinctions between Democrats and Republicans. We can criticize those who we favor. Republicans are incapable of doing anything other than toeing the party line. Not that we need to care anymore. The Republicans are going the way of the Whigs. Adios, pendejos.
Factoid: The Civil Rights Act prohibits pay discrimination based on race, gender or religion but employees must sue within 6 months of first being discriminated against — even if the illegal pay discrimination continues for many years.
Last year, the House passed the Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, under which the 6 months would run from the last discriminatory paycheck, not the first one. A Republican filibuster blocked it in the Senate.
This bill represents simple fairness for workers. John McCain is against it.
Ohio’s Democratic governor and Democratic lawmakers are moving forward to impeach the state’s Democratic attorney general in the wake of scandals in the AG’s office.
You would never see Republicans do this. They would protect one of their own at all costs, even if they had to lie, cover up, destroy evidence, and obstruct justice.
When Republicans get caught in wrongdoing, which is practically a daily routine, our wingnut friends on this board love to defend their party’s misbehaving politicians by asserting that Democrats are just the same.
No, they’re not.
@ 31 Amen
The FBI today raided the office and home of Scott Bloch, head of the U.S. Office of Special Counsel, which is responsible for protecting federal whistleblowers and investigating complaints of retaliation against whistleblowers.
Since 2004, Bloch has made sure that such complaints aren’t investigated and, in particular, that retaliation against gay federal employees is unimpeded and goes unpunished.
The search warrants apparently were based, in part, on the fact that Bloch spent $1,000 of taxpayer money to have a consulting firm
scrub e-mails from his office computer.
@ 29, Indeed! The inability of the nectar-besotted crowd to self, or group-criticize is incredible. It’s a mass-personality disorder of historical proportion. After the endless litany of disasters dished out by their leaders you’d think common morality, ethics and decency would eventually bring some sense of direction to their vile souls.
Another “family values” bloch head. I’m sure one of the resident evil will be along to defend him shortly.
As a person who spent many years in sales, I can tell you that the presumptive close doesn’t always work. Sometimes the only tool that works is the doorknob close. But it’s always the last in your arsenal.
The Obama camp trying out a presumptive close is about as realistic as Hillary offering Obama the vice presidential nod.
Regarding the “Free Newt” ads tonight on HA.
Has Newt finally been imprisoned?
Is this a trend we can count on?
Here is to hoping!
An Iraqi man who was detained by U.S. forces (and eventually released without charges against him) has filed a federal lawsuit in Los Angeles against two U.S. contractors he claims tortured him in Abu Ghraib prison, seeking unspecified money damages.
@37 Newt isn’t free. He cost U.S. workers, consumers, and small shareholders unimaginable billions.
Roger Rabbit spews:
@37 Newt isn’t free. He cost U.S. workers, consumers, and small shareholders unimaginable billions.
That is nothing compared to what he cost you commies in 94. That was a bloodbath. If the dems steal the election in 08 you can bet it will happen again in 2010.
Perhaps the most significant result of today’s voting is this one:
“Voting in Indiana was carried out under a state law, recently upheld by the Supreme Court, that requires voters to produce a valid photo ID. About a dozen nuns in their 80s and 90s at St. Mary’s Convent in South Bend were denied ballots because they lacked the necessary identification.”
Good. If they are that irresponsible they are probably democrats so it’s doubly good.
@40 & 41 – Full moon tonight?
The total Republican vote in today’s Indiana primary is around 400,000; Obama and Hillary each have in the neighborhood of 600,000, which means three-fourths of the voters voted for a Democratic candidate. And Indiana is a rock-solid Republican state!
But those numbers can’t hold candle to how many Indianans voted for the “chimp” over the last democrat. I wouldn’t hold your breath… wait I am talking to rabbit…please hold your breath and die. Sorry that was the Ann Coulter in me. roof roof.
Well, Clinton does at least have an excellent chance to score stunning victories in West Virginia on May 13 and Kentucky on May 20.
05/06/2008 at 10:13 pm
The funny thing is that these donks actually believe she will concede. We repubs know Hillary better than they do.
25 All liberals should arm, not just Obama’s supporters! Just in case.
That may be your only hope of having a democrat win a presidential election with over 50% of the vote. God knows that nothing else will work. hehehe I mean roof roof.
The Civil Rights Act prohibits pay discrimination based on race, gender or religion but employees must sue within 6 months of first being discriminated against — even if the illegal pay discrimination continues for many years.
I would be for this bill only if it pertains to tax discrimination. Until we fix that first screw everything else.
Euthanize the Philly (Bitch)!
@ 41
So, you’re saying that we need voter ID laws to prevent dogs from showing up at the polls to vote?
I can’t believe that those 98-year-old nuns in wheelchairs are so irresponsible as to not carry a driver’s license! Just like a nun to be a rampant lawebreaker.
oh, JBD, you’re not gonna enjoy the next eight years.
BTW, it was “over” in March. Apparently a few people (television and print pundits prominent among them) who are a little slow on the uptake.
@41
Good. If they are that irresponsible they are probably democrats so it’s doubly good.
Wow, even for these comment threads this is a dumb comment.
52 Lee
Oh, come on. Now you’re defending 98-year-old nuns? Surely they can fend for themsleves. After all, wheelchair-bound old women who have taken a vow of poverty can go the heck out and buy as much ID as anyone else, right?
Hey, how excited are you Republicans about McCain? I mean really. Heart of hearts and all that.
This just in: John MCain has received over 75% of the Republican vote in Indiana. His support among Republicans is, while obviously not universal, atill far stronger than that for anyone who is NOT running for the Republican nomination!
Barack Obama nets 12 pledged delegates out of yesterday’s vote. He is closer to the nomination; Hillary Clinton is farther away.
Question to ponder: How much of the “intelligence” presentd by the administration to bolster its case for invading Iraq was from confessions coerced under torture?
NAMBLA @ 55
Since McCain has a lock on the nomination, they’re voting for Huckabee to increase his stature come national convention time. There were plenty of delegates doing this at the WA GOP county conventions and there has been talk of some doing it at state. In fact, when we voted on delegates to state, a number of folks said they were for Huckabee, Romney and even Paul, but that they will support McCain as needed and definitely in November.
This is no big deal. That 25% in Indiana is merely the race for second place.
Why are Democrats going for Obama when polls show Clinton has a better chance at beating McCain? Doesn’t seem too smart.
Oh, man! Can this is the end of Hillary’s campaign? Whenever I think of that, I get a stiffy, and, at my age, I can’t afford to waste ’em!
I don’t care who wins in November, just as long as it’s NOT Hillary!
@ 59
Because democrats are being extremely fair in giving you wingnuts every possible chance to win in November just to drive home the full point of how badly Republicans suck.
Now, perhaps a few wingnuts can answer a few questions for me:
At present the FEC is non-functional, because it lacks a quorum. The President had submitted a list of four nominees to fill the open seats, and the list included Hans von Spakovsky whose record of voter suppression at the Justice Department is rather well documented.
Question #1: Why would President Bush nominate such a controversial person as Spakovsky? Is it President Bush’s intent to cripple the FEC during this election season? (Yes, that’s really two questions. If you don’t like that, eat me.)
As you follow the above link, you’ll note that the Senate has held up the nominations over largely procedural matters. The Republicans are demanding an up-or-down vote on the entire list of nominees, while Democrats think that von Spakovsky should get a separate vote.
Question #2: Why are Senate Republicans so intent on using a procedural gimmick to ram through the nomination of a controversial figure who couldn’t possibly receive confirmation on his own merits?
Recently, President Bush has sought to break the deadlock by submitting a new list of nominees. But the list still includes von Spakovsky. The difference is that the name of acting chairman, David Mason, has been removed from the list and replaced with someone else.
This is a curious move, because Mason, a Republican, has been the one who has balked at McCain’s attempts to opt out of the public financing he used to jump-start his campaign under the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform law. Supposedly the “compromise” is that Senate Republicans will agree to a separate vote on von Spakovsky’s nomination (yeah, right!).
Question #3: How can we possibly interpret this “compromise” as anything but a cynical move designed to give McCain a way to skirt around the very same campaign finance laws he authored and sponsored?
@61,
My anwers:
#1, Partisan loyalty.
#2, Partisan loyalty.
#3, Partisan loyalty.
On CNN.com living today…
Title: Your blog can be group therapy
Some 12 million people have a blog; many use it for group therapy
Experts: Blogging shouldn’t replace face-to-face counseling
Study: Men blog about politics, technology and money
Study: Women tend to blog more about private lives
Hillary, you lost, get the fuck out of the race.
@59
Why are Democrats going for Obama when polls show Clinton has a better chance at beating McCain? Doesn’t seem too smart.
Either candidate can easily defeat McCain. What the national polling isn’t taking into effect is the Bob Barr factor. He will be the Libertarian nominee and he will likely receive the votes of the 20-25% of Republicans who still aren’t voting for McCain in the primaries.
Lee, you seem to have a lot of confidence in intellect of the American voting public. I hope you’re right. Despite your optimism, we still live in a nation where over 80% of the public can’t find Afghanistan on a map. These are the people you are putting your faith in. I wish I were as optimistic as you.
Polls change – and the new polls will show that Obama has weathered the stupid Rev. flap and is now overtaking McCain. Hillary is history – the first female to have a serious run at the presidency was done in by her own poorly run campaign, her sense of inevitability and the incessant pandering. I would love to vote for a woman for president – just not this one – I can’t trust what she says. If she had won, I would have reluctantly voted for her – because I agree with her positions – but I still don’t trust her to do the right thing (like vote against the Iraq war – instead of making a political choice). Obama will be the stonger candidate because he can directly attack this unnesssary war – something Hillary can’t do.
For all intents and purposes the nomination process for the Democratic Party has come to an end. Both Hillary and Barak sprinted from the start to the end and both finished the race leaning forward, neck and neck and it was a photo finish with Barak “winning by a nose.”
Hillary has earned the right to end her campaign on her terms and we should give her that respect. Ultimately, she knows her argument crumbled last night and she needs to engineer a graceful exit from this race. She will exit with a message of fighting the good fight, which she did. By early June she will exit the race with dignity and party unity. The political legacy of the Clintons needs to remain in tact and secure their place in American history along side George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, Franklin Roosevelt, and John F. Kennedy, she must, and will do this.
Bill and Hillary Clinton built “the bridge to the 21st century” that connects the 20th century to the 21st century. Their bridge spans the chasm of the failed presidency of George W. Bush and the last vestige of the modern day Christian Conservative movement. In the way that the Preamble to the Constitution bridges the Articles of Confederation and the Constitution, the Clinton’s have bridged the divide between the red & blue states created by Republicans and the United States of America created by our liberal, founding fathers. Martin Luther King said he has stood at the top of the mountain and his eyes have seen the glory of the Promised Land. Barak Obama is the first American political leader to truly lead us to the Promised Land.
The politics of conservatism: fear, division, torture, secrecy, class warfare, greed, suppression of individual freedom and liberties have been brushed aside by the American people. We will no longer tolerate unpatriotic Americans such as Rush Limbaugh to incite his fellow conservatives to play mischief with the sacred tool of democracy – the vote. Many brave men and women have served, fought, and died for this sacred right. It is not to be used thwart the will of the people or manipulate false outcomes of elections. We will no longer tolerate unpatriotic Americans such as Karl Rove and voter caging, his suppression of black military personnel serving in the War on Terror. We will no longer tolerate any of them or their “ideas.”
Americans have awoken to a new chapter in American politics and American history. Both Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama have broken any and all glass and marble ceilings. Nothing is impossible or out of reach for anyone in America any more. The tables are no longer tilted towards the aristocratic elite of the Republican Party. Our system of government is being returned to the only safe depository of power — The People.
58 TRM
Or that 15% who voted for Huck and Romney may be unreconstructed conservatives who will NOT hold their noses and vote for McCain in the fall but will instead stay home, and the 8% who voted for Paul may very well be anti-war libertarians who could easily swing to the antiwar candidate. I’m just sayin’ that McCain does not have unnanimous support and that this might indicate that his support is, in reality, not very enthusiastic.
How many votes did John Edwards, Joe Biden, or Bill Richardson get in these two primaries? Ummm, NONE.
62 Troll
You’re right. President Bush puts partisan loyalty over the functioning of government every time.
I was going to vote for McCain because I cannot stand Hillary, if she got the nomination. Now I’m going to vote for Hillary, and do everything in my power to get her elected, if she gets nominated, just to annoy all the ditto-bots who crossed over. I want her to get elected and make them listen to her laugh, every single day.
71 Blue John
Uh, have you ever considered just voting for the person you think would make the better president, the person with whose policies you are more closely in agreement? Just askin’…
Love, I wanted to vote for Edwards and now I WANT to vote for Obama, but I’m afraid that Hillary is somehow going to cheat and get the nomination. as it stands now, If she gets the nomination, it will be after she lied, tried to change the rules and went negative, why whould I reward her with my vote?
BJ at 73:
Don’t worry, she’ll bow out with grace and dignity.
Give Hillary her due. Whether or not you supported her you got to appreicate the fact that she fought the hard fight.
When you’re a fighter, it’s difficult to concede defeat. She knows she lost and barely lost at that.
She WILL do the right thing. Hell, she still has a shot at VP.
I see your point, but I disagree with how she fights. To use boxing analogies, while Obama is following the rules, she is gouging eyes, kicking below the belt and throwing sand. To win, by any means available, is not honorable and should not be rewarded. This is kind of like the US resorting to torture. We have to be better than that. Hillary has to be better than that. If she had kept to the issues and show how she was going to help Americans and the others on the downside of the ticket, without going into the politics of destruction, then I’d support her more.
That said, I do fear a tiny bit, that Obama is going to get in, and be another Carter. A really nice guy, but not be able to do the honorable thing while still being ruthless when needed. Hillary and McCain are ruthlessness without the honor.
BUT, this time, I’ll choose the devil I don’t know, vs the devil I do. and with Clinton and McCain, it will be politics as usual.
I wished Obama was more progressive in his stance on the economy, more of a populist, choosing to help employees over the corporations. But that cannot happen. The corps wouldn’t allow it.
Blue John – look at how Obama has run his campaign. Disciplined, on-message, hitting back when he is struck unfairly – but not hitting below the belt – he will do just fine. He is smart, a good speaker and will make toast out of McCain. He can attack Mccain’s weak points – the war, the economy, McCain’s waffles, McCain’s age, McCain’s ultra conservatism and McCain’s ties to lobbyists and to Bush.
Clinton could not go after half of those because she is compromised.