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HA: Rep. Rick Larsen Wins Reelection in WA-02

by — ,

With the latest ballot report from Snohomish County giving him a 1,451 vote lead, it is now safe to call Washington’s 2nd Congressional District for Democratic incumbent Rep. Rick Larsen.

Rick Larsen (Democratic Party)  110,447  50.33%
John Koster (Republican Party)  108,996	 49.67%

Although trailing on election night, Larsen has now won the majority of votes in each of two consecutive ballot reports, in five of the six counties across which his district spans (Snohomish broke slightly to Koster’s advantage in today’s drop)… the same sort of late-ballot Democratic trend we’ve seen in King County and much of the rest of the state. Since the remaining uncounted ballots are all drawn from the same universe of late ballots counted over these past two days, it is only reasonable to assume that Larsen will continue to draw a majority of these votes.

So all in all, that’s not bad for WA Dems given the political climate. We hold the US Senate against an onslaught of undisclosed, corporate millions, and we give up only one, open House seat in WA-03 (a seat, by the way, that will inevitably be redistricted to be considerably more Republican for 2012.) Hard for local Republicans to crow about that given their party’s wins nationwide.

Comments

  1. 1

    i agree with the analysis and the call (and the outcome, by the way). These numbers are still in recount territory, however. Are you predicting that the final gap will be > 2,000 votes?

  3. 3

    As an 03 resident in Olympia, I wouldn’t mind at all being added to a Sound-based district to the north instead of being an afterthought for the south.

  4. 4

    The Raz, the choice of the unhinged KLOWN who posted Rasmussen propaganda 700 times here in the comment throughout this last election cycle, is FLAYED ALIVE:

    Rasmussen’s polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight. We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially, and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.

    Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious since party identification (unlike characteristics like age and gender) is often quite fluid.

    Rasmussen’s polls — after a poor debut in 2000 in which they picked the wrong winner in 7 key states in that year’s Presidential race — nevertheless had performed quite strongly in in 2004 and 2006. And they were about average in 2008. But their polls were poor this year.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n.....#more-3323

  5. 5

    YLB–
    MegaLib Nate Silver also included polls from Pulse Opinion Research in his Rasmussen numbers.
    Read the fine-print
    He also cherry-picked cut-off dates to make Rasmussen look as bad as possible.

    Clearly Nate had an agenda.
    You see YLB, unlike you, I understand that the UNDERLYING ASSSUMPTIONS dictate the result. Change an assumption, change the result.

    Nate is a clever guy.
    But lumping POR with Rasmussen…why?
    And his justification for polls used? Arbitrary.

    Nate Silver is beloved be you KLOWNS…but not respected by all. Far from it.
    Cherry-picking bullshit analysis,
    Rasmussen will respond.
    And there will be a truly independent analysis done YLB.
    You can stick with your lefty cherrypicker if it makes you feel better.

  6. 6

    Cynical,

    Remember these are the same KLOWNS who swallowed the Daily Kooks and Research 2000 polls.

  7. 7

    Puddy–
    Yup. They are the last people who should be criticizing polls…which begs the question:
    Why didn’t Nate Silver figure out the DailyKos was being duped by Research 2000???
    Where was old Nate during this fiasco??
    Wasn’t Nate watching the Progressive henhouse?
    They cheated right under his schnoz!!
    Lots of credibility.
    Good point Puddy.

  9. 9

    Man I hope that miscreant jackass Koster goes down…. just another angry, run of the mill geezer.

  10. 10

    Morons,
    Nate Silver was one of the main people responsible for exposing the research 2000 fraud.

  11. 11

    Sorry to hear about Sparky Anderson. I never had the privilage of playing for him, but I sure respect him.

    Congratulations and thanks Senator Patty Murray!

    Rick Larson will pull this one out …he has to, just like Senator Murray had to.

  12. 12

    The tag team drops in to cover their miserable asses.

    Uh.. uh.. Fail. You were led around the nose by a partisan pollster who was in the tank for Faux News. Gee I wonder, why Raz??? Why not SurveyUSA who performed better?

    Sorry PULSE OPINION RESEARCH IS RASMUSSEN YOU FOOL. READ the article!

    700 times – at least.

  13. 13

    Why didn’t Nate Silver figure out the DailyKos was being duped by Research 2000???

    Silver analyzed Research 2k and rated them low you idiot! That’s what made kos dump them!

    Such a stupid KLOWN..

  15. 15

    Dawn Morrell has opened up her lead over Hans Zeiger from 17 votes to 90 votes. Looks like Zeiger is toast although this one is close enough for an automatic recount.

    My guess is Goldy’s expose of Zeiger’s sordid past flipped this race to the Democrat.

  16. 16

    Yep, The Putrid Morons used R2K also for their ANAL-ysis!

  17. 17

    @14 “63 house seats! Sweeeeeet!”

    So? What are you gonna do with them? Send a bill repealing health care reform to the Senate’s circular file? I can hardly wait to see the budget you guys write! And you guys now own high unemployment for the next two years.

  18. 18

    Doesn’t matter dirt stain… Kos, TPM and Goldy loved R2K for their “polling answers”.

    Now that’s when Goldy was trying to be the mac daddy of the northwest using R2K.

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

  19. 19

    And Rossi is a three times loser.

    Let the “Tea Party” flail two years in the House on the back benches on their way to being just more Republicans as if they’re weren’t that already.

    I’ll go on a limb and predict utter disaster just like we saw with the Newt scumbags.

    Anybody remember that “Plague on America”? Yeah didn’t think so.

  20. 20

    Cynny and Puddy,
    Nate Silver, and I read him every day for the past couple weeks before the election, provided nonpartisan analysis. I never saw anything resembling push-polling, or whatever. He recognizes that credibility comes from parsing data without underlying bias. Criticize as you will, which is what you guys do if somebody disagrees with you. fivethirtyeight is the most reliable polling spot. Period.

  21. 21

    And you guys now own high unemployment for the next two years.

    Nope. Can’t perform revisionist futurism Rabbit. Remember you all claimed GW Bush was the cause. Odumba is now the effect!

  22. 22

    Heh. And we’re going to see the tag team continue to use the bought and sold Scotty Raz doing what’s he’s told for Faux News.

  23. 23

    Proud Leftist,

    Puddy regularly reads 538. Puddy knew about Nate Silver’s expose of R2K. Puddy enjoys teasing the HA Libtardos for swallowing any R2K ANAL-lyses from their favrit KOOK-AID sites.

    It’s the stupid arguments by Nate against Rasmussen and his partisan attacks is what Puddy disagrees with. Rasmussen has been the most accurate pollster since 2004. Even libtardo sites like Daily Kooks and The Phony Morons agree about Rasmussen. Nate can’t deal with it cuz Nate doesn’t like Robo-Calls.

  26. 26

    23 – SurveyUSA uses robo-calls and performed better this cycle in the Senate and Governors races with no bias – unlike the Raz.

    Continue to cover for being led by the nose stooge.

  28. 28

    Seems only the dirt stain is the single fool pissing into the wind. The only bias registered is the standard left-wing bias. Rasmussen was one of the first to guarantee 55 house seats. He was wrong. It was 63.

    Typical so typical.

  29. 29

    First you morons called the Tea Party racists. They put forth

    14 black candidates – 2 won
    6 Hispanic candidates – all won
    1 Indian candidate – won
    1 new Hispanic governor – won

    What the Fuck is colonelsandersfavoritechicken blathering about now?

    WHAT minority candidates? Oh…Alan West. Big fucking deal.

  30. 30

    Heh. Hey fiend I count 118 mentions of Raz by you over three election cycles including mentions by that most lovable old loser – MWS.

    You love to repeat yourself. You say “you can’t trust Rasmussen”.

    http://horsesass.org/?p=20199#comment-944782

    Must have repeated that a dozen times.

    Damn straight asswipe – proved biased to Republicans 3 to 4 points this election cycle.

    Continue to be led by the nose like the stooge you are.

  31. 31

    Puddy
    Let’s see how you’re feeling about Teabaggers in just 2 years. I suspect your fondness will turn to at least regret, if not utter pissoffedness. Really. You won’t much love these freaks in 2 years.

  32. 32

    31 – These Teabaggers (the elected ones anyway) are just Republicans PL. That’s what they’ll be in less than 2 years if they’re not that now.

    They want to cut taxes for the rich and cut social security and medicare and increase defense spending.

    And that’s all fine and good with the KLOWN and his sidekick.

    The worst thing these teabaggers could do that would disappoint these two KLOWNS is to get caught committing a crime. A Republican is never supposed to get caught.

  33. 33

    32
    Teabaggers hate government, so they put people in government who can’t govern. They’ve done a damned good job this electoral cycle. All the while, they claim they have a mandate for something, something that not a one of them could identify.

  34. 34

    @32,33 The Republican leadership admits, on day two of the great wave, that they are the party of Tanya Harding. If your talent is lacking and so insuffcient that you’ve no chance to earn a respectable score with the judges, knee cap your opponent.

  35. 35

    19

    Anybody remember that “Plague on America”? Yeah didn’t think so.

    I assume you are referring to the contract with America to which much was enacted, as in welfare reform as well as other things…

  37. 37

    Proud Leftist @ 36

    I thought the Tea Party types were the political equivalent of Sarah Palin. Shrill nutso quitters without any consistent principles.

  38. 38

    Lying sack of shit dirt stain@30,

    You lie again…

    You say “you can’t trust Rasmussen”.

    Nope dirt stain Puddy said in the link

    You don’t trust Rasmussen. Well they are very damn accurate.

    This is why Puddy continues to ridicule you on being TEH HA DATABAZE KEEPA. Your “accuracy” level is still ZERO!

  39. 39

    Proud Leftist,

    Tea Party members only hate leftist progressive George Soros led government.

  40. 40

    Somehow facts are continually lost on the leftist fool rujax!

    He was one of the first here to claim if you disagree with Odumba you are a racist. Well we all learned that was the Journolist bowel movement scream. We also learned some of the peeps the HA libtardo bloggers followed were big time Journolist members. Puddy identified many of them over time on this blog.

    Now coming forward the HA libtardo bloggers called the Tea Party members a group of racists. Well that didn’t fly with the facts. Now the dumb cinder block is still having issues with facts.

    Marco Rubio will take the national rug from under you with the latino vote. 62% of them voted Rubio in Florida. BTW he’s a Tea Party member.

    Sucks to be you rujax.

  41. 41

    We’re the party of Tonya Harding? Projecting again?

    It’s you and your party of CZARS which come out and kneecap everyone who disagrees with you.

    Have any of you read Paul Ryan’s economic platform? Yeah… didn’t think so! You took Ezra Journolist (If you disagree with Odumba you’re a racist) Klein’s take on it.

    Bunch of KLOWNS! You shouldn’t allow the dirt stain ylb to be your mouthpiece on IMPORTANT issues. He’s chronologically deficient even when he has TEH HA DATABAZE to use!

  42. 42

    While it does seem Rick Aloof Larsen will win reerection in the whackjob blue state WA, how sweet it is…

    [Copied content deleted — see HA Comment Policy]

    Bart Let’s Deal Stupak and Joe I can’t tell you the Deal Sestak.

    And who is still around in Congress…? Michelle Bachmann, mother of 5 and foster mother to 23. Suck on that HA fools!

    Seeeeeeeeeeeeee ya!

  43. 43

    @42

    The silver lining in this is that the brunt of Democratic losses were borne by the Blue Dogs – the corporatist/Republican-Lite twits that made doing anything progressive/liberal very very difficult. The Progressive caucus lost 4 of about 80, while the Blue Dogs lost 26 of 54. the overall Democratic caucus is consequently much more leftist.

    Hooray!

    Like Roger noted above, can’t wait to see the Lord of the Flies-type behavior you guys are headed for with the House majority. We’ll be back to pick up the pieces (again) in 2012.

  47. 47

    @42: It figures that Puddy is proud of an idiot like Bachmann. Now we know how stoopid you are Puddy, you agree with the follwoing idiot Bachmann quotes:
    “The big thing we are working on now is the global warming hoax. It’s all voodoo, nonsense, hokum, a hoax”.

    “What I would say — what I would say is that the news media should do a penetrating expose and take a look. I wish they would. I wish the American media would take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out, are they pro-America or anti-America? I think people would love to see an expose like that”

    ‘I find it interesting that it was back in the 1970s that the swine flu broke out under another, then under another Democrat president, Jimmy Carter. I’m not blaming this on President Obama, I just think it’s an interesting coincidence.’

    By the way, it was 1976 and Ford was President – but an idiot like Bachmann has never let the facts get in the way of her stoopidity. Kind of like Puddy.

    Bachmann recently said that Obama’s trip to asia was costing 200 million a day. When asked about her facts (since we spend less than that each day in all of Afghanistan) she cited Faux news…and they made it all up as usual.

    What a bunch of retards!

  48. 48

    Liberal Scientist..
    Aren’t you concerned there are still 28 Blue Dogs out of your minority position….and Heath Shuler is likely to challenge Nancy Pelsoi for Minority Leader?
    Heath Shuler is a young, bright guy…especially for a Democrat.
    While you KLOWNS are wishing & hoping the Tea Party will wreak havoc on the Republicans, y’all have your own serious Civil War about to erupt.

    You will see after your battle, that if Pelosi wins, there will be actual defections or certainly voting defections. The Democrats will be weakened further by re-electing an angry gal to head their Minority.

    Watch…and worry.

  49. 49

    37. Richard Pope spews:

    Proud Leftist @ 36

    I thought the Tea Party types were the political equivalent of Sarah Palin. Shrill nutso quitters without any consistent principles.

    And the Progressives are lead by Nancy Pelosi who is beyond shrill and combative. Watch for the Blue Dogs to either cut-and-run or be a nightmare for her if the far-left Democrat House (that’s what is remaining) re-elects Pelosi who, along with Obama & Reid, are responsible for the biggest losses in decades.

    Sarah Palin is not running. Guaranteed. She is in a great position to help & assist folks she believes with philosophically. Have you heard her speak and read her recent comments.
    PALIN IS NOT RUNNING IN 2012!
    She even marveled and gloated over all the wonderful potential Republican candidates for Prez. She has positioned herself to be incredible influential on Tea Party principles.
    That is a great position to be in.
    And she is making a fortune doing it.

  50. 50

    The reason votes break late for the Democrats is simple…they have a much better database of their voters and utilize it more effectively than Republicans.
    The R’s have simply not devoted the resources, at least in Washington, to screen voters and get important info like e-mails. The Dems have.
    Hat’s off. Luke Esser has simply got to make this a top priority. It’s not that complicated.
    But I think it holds true thru out most of the Country.
    The Dems are more tech-savvy…and it has paid dividends.

  51. 51

    I have several friends who are on the Democrat lists. I asked them to wait and mail in ballots on Election Day to see how much correspondence they got. A TON!!! Phone calls & e-mails.
    The Dems get the lists of Non-Voters from County Auditors and match it up with their excellent database…and call THEIR voters.
    The R’s will tell you they do the same thing…sure, but are they as effective? Obviously NO!
    This is a critical piece for 2012.
    If the R’s don’t do better they will be sorry.
    I’ve been hounding them for 20 years on this.
    Folks have sent in corrections only to see the same errors on the next years list.
    Hard to get folks to call voters they assume are R’s when too many turn out to be hardcore Dems.
    Come on Luke–THIS is the issue.

  52. 52

    These insane ball-swallowers are going apeshit.

    The rethuglican meltdown is going to be SOOOO much fun to watch!! YAY!

  54. 54

    The rethuglicans CAN NOT GOVERN.

    They CAN’T…they WON’T.

    It’s just going to be petty, petty bullshit for two years.

  55. 55

    Thank GOD the Tea Party brought us this victory of Republicans in the House! We’re SAVED! Their VERY first action…slashing government, eliminating the Department of Education? No…extending our debt limit! LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL.

    I’m sure THAT’S why the Tea Party elected these folks. ROTFLMAO.

    Now us smart folks know they have to do this (they’ve done this MANY times) and there’s a pragmatic reason for this, but symbolically it’s hilarious!

    @54 – Now LETS give them a chance! Boehner says he can increase military spending, tack on a $3-$4 trillion tax cut, protect Medicare and decrease spending all at the same time. Let’s see what he does. I can’t freaken wait to see this budget!
    Dick Cheney: “Deficits don’t matter”

  56. 56

    Welcome to yet another “do nothing” Congress.

    Just a 2 year exercise in hating Obama, a campaign to put a Republican in the White House.

    Mitt Romney? Uh… I don’t think so. The last set of dwarves they put forward stunk the place out. I see no “star” on their bench.

  57. 57

    Again, Klynical has never taken up my challenge of finding a single program that Boehner or McConell has said they will cut.

    Republicans campaigned on reducing the budget deficit but they never said what they would cut and they are all in favor oif tax cuts for the rich that will make the deficit worse.

    They are a bunch of liars and they will lie, obfuscate, delay, deny and blame others – but they will not really govern.

  58. 58

    McConell said he wanted to repeal the health “spending” bill – again repeating the lie becuase the health CARE bill actually saves us about 150 billion over 10 years.

    McConell is a liar who is supported by corporations and the tobacco lobby.

  59. 59

    Conservative Leadership is the ULTIMATE oxymoron.

  60. 60

    @57

    I keep bringing this up, but for some reason Americans don’t like to dig further than the soundbites.

    Fact 1: The Republicans have claimed that they are going to curb the deficit, but if you look through a 30 year history of American politics, deficits have exploded under Republican leadership.

    Fact 2: The Republicans have claimed that they are going to curb the deficit, but have taken the programs that consume most of the deficit off of the table: Defense, VA, and senior programs. For instance, we currently have 11 aircraft carrier groups with 3 more in the works. Why? There are only 22 total carriers in active service worldwide. Yes, you are reading that correctly, the US has 50% of the worldwide aircraft carriers. Are 11 carriers really necessary to fight the war on terror anyway?

    Fact 3: Republicans have stated that they will not raise Government revenue by raising taxes.

    Hard to decrease a deficit when you refuse to curb spending or raise revenue and when, historically, you have shown yourself incapable of doing so. My guess is that the Republicans plan is to hope that the economy gets better so that they can claim success (by accident).

  62. 62

    @60 A couple of years ago, just for fun, I had an account with the hannity forums and kept posting facts like that.
    I lasted 4 months before my account was deleted for being “offensive”.

  63. 63

    Mr Cynical is right.
    The Democratic GOYV vote calls stop after my spouse and I mail our ballots but the Republican calls pick up at the same time. Rs cannot have well-screened voter lists if they waist all that effort calling Ds who have already voted. How Democratic are we? My husband is a retired union official who has never in his life voted for a Republican. I am a former Democratic Party official. Despite our strong D records (We aren’t even moderates. Our Canadian family members are NDP and we would be, too, if we lived a bit farther north) both the Rossi campaign and the RSCC thought we were worth calling more than a dozen times after we voted.

    Because I’m a Democrat,I’m glad Ds are better at voter ID. I have no idea why Republicans waste so much time and money on us.

  64. 64

    My Cynical called Heath Shuler a bright guy…Heath Shuler may be the biggest dumbass in congress.

    He’s not far from Riechertsville in terms of raw intelligence.

  65. 65

    @40…

    Sucks to be you rujax.

    Sux worse to be a tool of the overlords like you p’dumdski.

  66. 66

    Tim F–
    And it’s because of folks like you that Heath Shuler and 27 other Blue Dogs may soon bolt to the R’s because the Democrat Party that used to believe in Private Sector jobs and a balanced Budget no longer exists.

  67. 67

    Pelosi IS running for House Minority Leader after the most crushing defeat in decades. It’s all about NANCY!!
    http://www.foxnews.com/politic.....em-leader/

    She is setting up a Democrat Civil War that is long overdue. It will leave her being the leader over a handful of loyal a$$holes.
    Will Rick Larson support her?
    If he does, Koster will surely run again.

  69. 69

    @66
    You are a lying sack of shit.

    Heath Shuler is in no danger of “bolting”. The Democratic party believes in private sector jobs, they just don’t think you can leave everything to the private sector with no oversight, regulation, or safety net. As for a balanced budget I’ll take the Democrats record any day of the week over the Republican’s. Remember that Shrub and a GOP Congress pissed the surplus down the drain with tax cuts for millionaires.

  70. 70

    So, when will the next results be posted?

    If voters mailed their ballots late on Tuesday, they should have arrived by Thursday, so today’s results should pretty much clear determine the results in the Larsen/Kostner race. All that will be left will be a few ballots trickling in which were mailed from either distant parts of the country or overseas.

  71. 71

    @70 rhp6033, not sure when the next count update will be announced, but the latest update was at 2:18pm and it showed Larsen’s lead expanding another 600 to 2,025; Larsen – 111,425 to Koster teabagging confederate flag waving loser – 109,400.

    Evil acorns!

  72. 72

    That update was San Juan County, which is even bluer than King. We won’t really know what’s shakin’ in WA-02 until the next updates from Snohomish, Whatcom, Skagit, and Island.

  73. 73

    Thanks for the link dirt stain. Once again you prove to the world how much of a DATABAZE MORON you are when you chop off the comment. It only proves how much of a moron you are each day!

    Another EPIC FAIL!

    Pavlov sez try again dirt stain!

  74. 74

    This is the “plague on america”..

    And you are not ORIGINAL but you still drink the “man juice”.

    Yoda speak – Original thought never from this dirt stain!

  75. 75

    Once again SFB notright forgets what Lee said about fully agreeing with someone.

    you agree with the follwoing idiot Bachmann quotes

    Blah blah copied material.

    Regarding the $200 Million a day… That came from India and other news sources picked up on it. Did you notice Robert Fibbs danced around the answer retard?

    How is that $1.331 Trillion OdumbaCare cost treating you idiot!

  76. 76

    McConell said he wanted to repeal the health “spending” bill – again repeating the lie becuase the health CARE bill actually saves us about 150 billion over 10 years.

    And where does SFB neverright get his information from? March 2010 when it was fully refuted April 2010. New cost $1.331 Trillion and climbing.

    Stay on message fool. It’s your only argument left.

    BTW moron did you see the AMA dude quit becuz he fronted health care? Yet he didn’t deliver the Medicare Doctor fix.

    EPIC FAIL!

  77. 77

    @75…

    Only p’dumbski is stupid enough to believe a lump of bullshit like that.

    If it come from wingnut daily or faux news nutwork this craphead will believe it.

  78. 78

    More for SFB notright… regarding Tuesday’s voter rejection of your kind…

    health care was…Among Democrats who favored repeal, 36 percent voted for Republican[s]. Among independents who favored repeal, 86 to 9 voted Republican.

    That was DUMBOCRATIC pollster Pat Caddell.

  79. 79

    Remember that Shrub and a GOP Congress pissed the surplus down the drain with tax cuts for millionaires.

    Did some fool claim a surplus again? We went over the Clinton budget gimmicks many times.

    HAHAHAHAHAHA

  80. 80

    Once again the dumb cinder block@77 just doesn’t read anything except kook-aid.

    The Medicare actuary wrote a memorandum on April 22 of this year calling attention to this “double-counting.” “In practice,” he stated, “the improved Part A financing cannot simultaneously be used to finance other Federal outlays (such as the coverage expansions under the PPACA) and to extend the trust fund, despite the appearance of this result from the respective accounting conventions.”

    Hint stupid idiot. Medicare Actuary April 2010. Google it fool. Become educated. Plus there is another $20 Billion in additional estimated fees.

    See you dumb cinder block

    You aren’t a fake retard, you are a real retard.

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