Comments on: [Updated] E+1 — Gov, R-74, SoS[, I-1240] http://horsesass.org/?p=47705 The straight poop on WA politics & the press Wed, 22 May 2013 12:16:55 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Roger Rabbit http://horsesass.org/?p=47705&cpage=1#comment-1199794 Roger Rabbit Fri, 09 Nov 2012 07:03:05 +0000 http://horsesass.org/?p=47705#comment-1199794 The SoS's latest update 15 minutes ago has Robbie trailing Jay by 54,000+. That one's over. Meanwhile, Drew trails Wyman by 32,499 votes. Here's how Drew might win. King County issued 1,182,930 ballots, received 932,985, and has counted 723,283. That means 209,702 remain to be counted. To date, Drew has 60.82% and Wyman has 39.09% in King County (doesn't add to 100% because of write-ins), broken down as follows: Drew: 402,224 Wyman: 258,546 Write-ins: 601 Total: 661,371 This means there are 61,912 "undervotes" (i.e., ballots with no vote for an SoS candidate), or 8.56% of the counted ballots. Multiplying that by 209,702 uncounted ballots gives us an estimate of 17,950 "undervotes" in the remaining ballots. Subtract that from 209,702 and we have 191,752 estimated uncounted votes for Sos in King County. Now multiply 191,752 by 60.82% and 39.09% respectively, and we can estimate that Drew will get 116,624 and Wyman will get 74,956 more votes from King County. Add that to tonight's totals on Sam Reed's website and, if no more votes come in from other counties, we end up with a final tabulation that looks approximately like this: Drew - 1,245,806 Wyman - 1,236,637 That's a difference of 0.36%, which appears to be within automatic recount range, but this isn't like the razor-thin margin in the 2004 governor's race; it's a nearly 9,000 vote difference that should hold up in a recount. Now, keep in mind this is Rabbit Math, not official numbers, so things could go awry with this calculation. But it looks to me like it's possible -- I'm only saying <em>possible</em> -- tha Drew could overtake Wyman in King County's remaining ballots. The SoS’s latest update 15 minutes ago has Robbie trailing Jay by 54,000+. That one’s over.

Meanwhile, Drew trails Wyman by 32,499 votes. Here’s how Drew might win.

King County issued 1,182,930 ballots, received 932,985, and has counted 723,283. That means 209,702 remain to be counted.

To date, Drew has 60.82% and Wyman has 39.09% in King County (doesn’t add to 100% because of write-ins), broken down as follows:

Drew: 402,224
Wyman: 258,546
Write-ins: 601
Total: 661,371

This means there are 61,912 “undervotes” (i.e., ballots with no vote for an SoS candidate), or 8.56% of the counted ballots. Multiplying that by 209,702 uncounted ballots gives us an estimate of 17,950 “undervotes” in the remaining ballots. Subtract that from 209,702 and we have 191,752 estimated uncounted votes for Sos in King County.

Now multiply 191,752 by 60.82% and 39.09% respectively, and we can estimate that Drew will get 116,624 and Wyman will get 74,956 more votes from King County.

Add that to tonight’s totals on Sam Reed’s website and, if no more votes come in from other counties, we end up with a final tabulation that looks approximately like this:

Drew – 1,245,806
Wyman – 1,236,637

That’s a difference of 0.36%, which appears to be within automatic recount range, but this isn’t like the razor-thin margin in the 2004 governor’s race; it’s a nearly 9,000 vote difference that should hold up in a recount.

Now, keep in mind this is Rabbit Math, not official numbers, so things could go awry with this calculation. But it looks to me like it’s possible — I’m only saying possible — tha Drew could overtake Wyman in King County’s remaining ballots.

]]> By: Tree Frog Farmer http://horsesass.org/?p=47705&cpage=1#comment-1199768 Tree Frog Farmer Fri, 09 Nov 2012 04:47:14 +0000 http://horsesass.org/?p=47705#comment-1199768 If the King Co Elections site refreshed at 8:30 PM, the Boobie McKenna is in trouble. Currently pulling 37.79% of the ballots. Little Boobie's own staff was calling for 40% in King County to be competitive. Bwa-ha-ha-ha If the King Co Elections site refreshed at 8:30 PM, the Boobie McKenna is in trouble. Currently pulling 37.79% of the ballots. Little Boobie’s own staff was calling for 40% in King County to be competitive.

Bwa-ha-ha-ha

]]> By: EvergreenRailfan http://horsesass.org/?p=47705&cpage=1#comment-1199728 EvergreenRailfan Fri, 09 Nov 2012 01:23:16 +0000 http://horsesass.org/?p=47705#comment-1199728 The breaking news email I just got from MyNorthwest.com(KIRO Radio) just said little change in the latest count. The breaking news email I just got from MyNorthwest.com(KIRO Radio) just said little change in the latest count.

]]> By: rhp6033 http://horsesass.org/?p=47705&cpage=1#comment-1199721 rhp6033 Fri, 09 Nov 2012 00:46:25 +0000 http://horsesass.org/?p=47705#comment-1199721 Isn't there going to be a ballot results drop soon? That should tell us a lot. Isn’t there going to be a ballot results drop soon? That should tell us a lot.

]]> By: Moderate Man http://horsesass.org/?p=47705&cpage=1#comment-1199708 Moderate Man Fri, 09 Nov 2012 00:03:25 +0000 http://horsesass.org/?p=47705#comment-1199708 Thanks, N in Seattle! Thanks, N in Seattle!

]]> By: N in Seattle http://horsesass.org/?p=47705&cpage=1#comment-1199624 N in Seattle Thu, 08 Nov 2012 20:09:07 +0000 http://horsesass.org/?p=47705#comment-1199624 @11: I agree. As I mentioned in the essay, on Wednesday McKenna exceeded 40% in King County ... barely. Continuing to take 40.6%, which was his Wednesday take, ain't gonna cut it for Rob. @11:

I agree. As I mentioned in the essay, on Wednesday McKenna exceeded 40% in King County … barely. Continuing to take 40.6%, which was his Wednesday take, ain’t gonna cut it for Rob.

]]> By: Ekim http://horsesass.org/?p=47705&cpage=1#comment-1199611 Ekim Thu, 08 Nov 2012 19:20:58 +0000 http://horsesass.org/?p=47705#comment-1199611 Richard @10, Interesting hypothesis, but not enough data to support it. I'd put more weight on the different mind sets of early voters vs late voters. Richard @10,
Interesting hypothesis, but not enough data to support it.
I’d put more weight on the different mind sets of early voters vs late voters.

]]> By: Ekim http://horsesass.org/?p=47705&cpage=1#comment-1199608 Ekim Thu, 08 Nov 2012 19:10:29 +0000 http://horsesass.org/?p=47705#comment-1199608 @7, Sorry N, I do love my troll baiting. I'll try to be good. More to the point, I heard from Bobbie's own camp that KC needs break at least 40% for him to have a chance at a win and currently he is at 37.31%. So if he doesn't get around 45% of the remaining ballots, he's done. @7, Sorry N, I do love my troll baiting. I’ll try to be good.

More to the point, I heard from Bobbie’s own camp that KC needs break at least 40% for him to have a chance at a win and currently he is at 37.31%. So if he doesn’t get around 45% of the remaining ballots, he’s done.

]]> By: Richard Pope http://horsesass.org/?p=47705&cpage=1#comment-1199606 Richard Pope Thu, 08 Nov 2012 19:07:51 +0000 http://horsesass.org/?p=47705#comment-1199606 I think the later ballots get strongly influenced by newspaper endorsements. For example, nearly every newspaper endorsed R-74, so the share of R-74 votes increased in yesterday's count. Likewise, nearly every newspaper endorsed McKenna, and his count increased too. Probably not enough to save McKenna, but it should make this race get a bit closer. I think the later ballots get strongly influenced by newspaper endorsements. For example, nearly every newspaper endorsed R-74, so the share of R-74 votes increased in yesterday’s count. Likewise, nearly every newspaper endorsed McKenna, and his count increased too. Probably not enough to save McKenna, but it should make this race get a bit closer.

]]> By: Richard Pope http://horsesass.org/?p=47705&cpage=1#comment-1199604 Richard Pope Thu, 08 Nov 2012 19:03:57 +0000 http://horsesass.org/?p=47705#comment-1199604 If McKenna still has a <a href="http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/16dec_cometlovejoy/" rel="nofollow">snowball's chance in hell</a> of winning, all hope is not yet lost for him: <em><strong>Comet Lovejoy Plunges into the Sun and Survives</strong> Dec. 16, 2011: This morning, an armada of spacecraft witnessed something that many experts thought impossible. Comet Lovejoy flew through the hot atmosphere of the sun and emerged intact. "It's absolutely astounding," says Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab in Washington DC. "I did not think the comet's icy core was big enough to survive plunging through the several million degree solar corona for close to an hour, but Comet Lovejoy is still with us." </em> If McKenna still has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning, all hope is not yet lost for him:

Comet Lovejoy Plunges into the Sun and Survives

Dec. 16, 2011: This morning, an armada of spacecraft witnessed something that many experts thought impossible. Comet Lovejoy flew through the hot atmosphere of the sun and emerged intact.

“It’s absolutely astounding,” says Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab in Washington DC. “I did not think the comet’s icy core was big enough to survive plunging through the several million degree solar corona for close to an hour, but Comet Lovejoy is still with us.”

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