While the numerologists over at Sound Politics are busy job counseling prospective Gregoire nominees, I thought I’d take a look at a single number: 271. That’s the total number of additional or subtracted votes counties have reported thus far. (In fact, the total number is likely quite a bit higher, as subtracted votes at the precinct level would have canceled out additional votes in other precincts.)
With only about 14% of the counties reporting, this projects to about 2000 changed votes statewide.
And so to all those who argued that Rossi won the first two counts, thus there was no need for a third, I ask you: are you really comfortable saying that Rossi won by 42 votes… give or take a couple a thousand?
Yes.
And yes.
No, I’m not. Rossi will win if the recount is fair, that is a given.
When he wins, liberty will reign and I will be able to say without ANY doubt in my big Dinocrat mind (obviously Mr. Horsey hasn’t met a SINGLE Dinocrat) that WE WON!
So, I’m happy I broke across warring camps to build a new tomorrow by supporting a hand recount…
Actually, Goldy, I think that’s a pretty fair assessment. (I’m sure the amateur statisticians will offer that it’s actually give or take 1000, or 843, or two times the square root of the prime rate, or whatever.) Rossi won–according to the official machine recount–but with a margin slim enough to leave plenty of uncertainty as to whether a manual recount would reverse or uphold that. So Rossi won by 42 votes, give or take, and the Democrats asked for (and paid for!) a manual recount to see what it would give or take.
I think the better question is: Considering the number of votes being added and subtracted in this recount (however they get distributed between the candidates), are Rossi partisans now any less certain that he will win the final count? How certain are you?
Liberty will reign no matter who is Governor, Josef. The Fate Of Freedom’s March is not at stake. And when this has ended and we have a new Gov through the peaceful application of the laws and our votes (finally really mattering!), we all win.
Comment by David— 12/11/04 @ 1:56 am
Liberty will reign when it’s certain ONLY ALL the legal votes were counted…
And when the creep who pledges in her platform one thing and goes to court to take away public disclosure act rights is gone – then we all win!
When it is all said and done we will all get back to our normal lives. We got the the DJE years without to many devastations, if the Dinoservatives win we will get through those 4 short years also. The public will understand what happened, what went wrong, and what can be done better and in 4 years we will all be here complaining and calling each other names again. One thing for sure. Everyone should try and understand their own points of view with enough conviction that they can defend those views openly. At present all we have are two sides of the fence and 75% on both side have no idea what they really believe in.
Just a little observation to share with y’all.
In Jefferson County, 3 teams of 2 manually recounted 18,772 ballots in 3-1/2 hrs.
King County has 80 teams of 3. If they worked at the same pace as Jefferson County, they would have counted 500,587 ballots in 3-1/2 hrs. (80teams/3teams X 18,772). With some of the inefficiences cause by the volume…let’s say the pace would allow them to count the 900,000 in a 10 hour day.
So why is it taking nearly 2 weeks in King County?
Simple math….simple question.
No allegations…just a head scratcher.
One answer could be that since King County is so Leftist…this is an example of Leftist productivity.
Goldy- Are you accounting for the already enhanced ballots in King as part of your 2000 projections? Just curious…
That’s a good pace: an average of 2 seconds per ballot, assuming no breaks and (ahem) no time spent on ballot challenges. But — even if disagreements were to slow things down in King — you’re right, Mr. C., two weeks does seem like a long time.
Or the tape recount for Snohomish and Yakima, would be a huge surprise if any changes occur with those. Looks like King, Snohomish and Yakima total about 40% of the total. These seem to mess with your projection considerably.
I watched the entire hand recount in Jeffco. I will admit, I was surprise that there were 14 over and undervotes from the 2 prior machine recounts that were included in this hand recount. (Gregoire +8 and Rossi +6) knowing how carefully the outstacked ballots appeared to be reviewed during the original count. It does give some credence to this hand recount…although we open ourselves up totally to the human factor (both intentional or unintentional
errors). That’s why I still believe we should have stopped after the machine recount. Every time those lock boxes are opened and ballots handled you have the opportunity for corruption. Frankly, it will never be a perfect election….and I know those 39 ballot counting machines through out the State did not conspire to create a 42 vote Rossi win. This next total…while definitely correcting some previous errors, will also create new allegations. And even though I saw nothing nor suspect anything in Jefferson County….well let’s see what happens.
Point of clarification, didn’t a large portion of the electorate in Snohomish and Yakima counties vote absentee? (Also, zip, why are you lumping King county in with Snohomish and Yakima? Snohomish + Yakima = 13% of the total.)
Thanks for the firsthand account and impressions, Mr. C.
P.S.: I-dy think the suffix-dy joke-dy is finall-dy getting old-dy. :)
I wouldn’t be too hard on King County. I have been an observer there for the past two days and will soon head out for a third stint. Jefferson County likely did not need to move their ballots to a new location. King County did need to do so. Then came the sorting of ballots into 17 legislative districts, and from that first sort, into precincts, all the while keeping absentee and poll votes separate. In addition to this, the add-ons (mostly provisionals) had to be sorted separately.
The counting itself appeared to me to be done with acceptable efficiency, and with a thoroughness that made me feel comfortable. I also like the idea of having three people at each table, which apparently Jefferson County didn’t have. The process at King County is time-consuming, to be sure, but with each of the two counters (the third person is a county employee monitor/recorder) counting and checking each pile of votes, and recounting if the count of each doesn’t match, much time is consumed per precinct. Better slow and sure than fast and questionable.
Jefferson County had 2 staff counters and 1 obeservor from each Party sitting at each table. They did sort ballots the previous day. They also allowed the Party Recount Supervisors to freely walk around the table. The Auditor and Election Supervisor have a lot of experience and run a tremendously efficient operation. All of us who observed, from both Parties, were impressed.
That said…2 weeks is still a long time. It appears King County didn’t sort ballots by precindt before the 1st count or 1st re-count creating this extra work now.
Oh and David…please note the -dy is now eliminated….an olive branch of sorts to you & Goldy.
However…I still have a problem with Brent..he is clearly a neo-Rudy!!! Where did Rudy go??? It was fun reading his “Angry Gay Male” perspective….although kind of scary because he actually believed his own BS.
First off, kudos to this site and the people who put up constructive comments and replies…really good stuff here, actually gives one some hope.
There already appear to be many manual recount examples of humans catching things machines can’t (e.g. faint but clear optical scan marks). Seems these are exactly the reasons state policy allows for hand recounts, and why it’s a good policy. It appears many people’s votes on both sides of the race are being counted for the first time, despite technocrats’ insistence on the superiority of machines. In a race like this the value of sets of eyes (with stress on the plural) looking at ballots definitely outweighs chance of skulduggery…which, because of combination of checks and basic good intent of workers (yes I believe that), doesn’t much worry me.
Hard to believe R’s would have done anything differently than the D’s’ve done if the results had been reversed. Amusing to read the implicit argument that King County should speed up its effort, when so much is at stake there and the scrutiny so intense.
Final note – someone on this board seems to have something against somebody named Rudy…I’m not “that” Rudy, ok?!
Goldy – I think you’re going to be the big winner from the hand recount.
Also what do you think about the fact Washington State now has its own Secretary of Defense – according to the AP wire?
Oh and I should add the hyperlink to the AP wire:
-LANE’S LEGIONS: On conservative web logs, admiration for Dino Rossi’s spitfire of a spokeswoman, Mary Lane, runs high. They even have a fond nickname for her, inspired by Donald “Rummy” Rumsfeld: Secretary of Defense Marummy Lane.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/.....20Politics
Of course, you can discuss this and other items of interest at http://www.permanentdefense.com/forum
Not “that” Rudy- despite all the belly-aching about King County during the first recount, the larger counties did EXACTLY what Kitsap County finally got around to doing- examining the ballots that were not easily or properly read by the machines. This was supposed to be done during the first recount, and obviously was not in some places.
It frustrates me that we are now in a third count, and are correcting “machine” error while possibly introducing manual error- that’s not a gripe about having a very legal third count, or anything, just noting that Kitsap, for instance, should have caught that last time. So far all these incongruities are human errors, from misplaced ballots to not checking undervotes for faint markings.
Actually, minimal slop for almost three million ballots, but it is human slop- we fail ourselves, then blame the machines…
Avoiding human slop is one reason King County is proceeding slowly and deliberately…
I’m not really accounting for anything. 271 new votes is still a number significantly greater than the 42 vote margin, and on its own suggests a recount was necessary. I believe I was sufficiently imprecise; “give or take a couple thousand” means it could be 300 or 1300 or 2300, and still remain an accurate statement.
And remember, those 271 additions and subtractions are at the “county total” level. There were many more additions and subtractions at the precinct level, and within precincts, that canceled each other out to reach those county totals.
I know people like Stefan — who are itching to catch me in some kind of statistical error or misrepresentation — might disagree, but a single broad statement can sometimes communicate the truth better than a pageful of calculations.
Goldy- actually, those 271 additions and subtractions are looking to be pretty accurate as a sum total of additions and subtractions at all levels- the counties are bending over backward to explain every change from the previous count, to maintain public confidence in the system. Most precincts are coming back exact- the biggest differentials are things like the seven provisionals still in envelopes in Whatcom and the 154 optical scans that were too faint in Kitsap. Or two erasures in Adams (I think it was Adams).
Admittedly, these are the small counties- sum total less than half of King County in amounts- but we are getting a remarkably small number of changes, which is indicative of a pretty good job having been done in the first place.
I am increasingly hopeful that it might yet all cancel out, returning us to the wonderful number of 42… plus or minus 2,000…
Wouldn’t that be a hoot!
Jim – appreciate the response, & I understand the frustration you mention, particularly if Kitsap was not thorough in its procedure (perhaps others weren’t as well). I’m willing to learn about this, and you and others have probably previously been through the topic ad infinitum, but – I’m not ready to conclude as you do that “all these incongruities are human errors.” I see there are citations to 150 or so additions in Kitsap, and there apparently another 7 in Whatcom, but there appear to be many more additions to the vote totals than these (as well as subtractions that are cancelled out). Also, can we be sure the larger counties have already examined all ballots that were not “easily or properly read by machines”? I don’t know how they’d know they’ve seen all ballots not “properly read” by technology…
Rudy-
There will possibly be some truly machine error, but in the largest counties, such as King, Pierce, and Spokane, during the first recount the machines “kicked aside” any ballot that showed an undervote or an overvote- no vote for Governor, or more than one vote for Governor. Those ballots were examined to see if there was an obvious vote for one of the candidates. In some cases marks are too faint- in others, directions had not been followed and instead of a bubble filled in, there were check marks, circles, or whatever. There were even cases where the two votes cast in the race- an overvote- was a vote for one of the candidates and a write-in vote for the same candidate.
I believe that King, Pierce, Spokane, etc., caught most of these situations the first time through, and am a bit surprised Kitsap did not…
And we are getting news reports with explanations of many of the other “incongruities- in one county, Rossi lost two votes because ballots where the voter had marked, then erased, a vote for Rossi still showed- to the machine- as a vote for Rossi. I don’t know that every incongruity has been explained, but an awful lot of them have- the vast majority to date, in fact.
But as I see it, all of these examples go back to human error that the machine could not have detected or fixed- even the example where ballots had jammed- that is human feeding ballots in improperly.
My bottom line is that I am amazed at what a low level of problems we have had, and instead of damning elections administrators and workers, as so many are, we ought to be praising them for a fantastic job being done.
Fantastic job…despite the multiple opportunity for screwups caused by King County having to hire hundreds of temps to do the hand count.
Keeping my fingers crossed that it all doesn’t blow up when King reports the last and deciding count. Whatever results from the King count, it will be scrutinized for a loooong time after this is over.
No. The law is the law. The dems have agreed to pay for the recount — as provided by law.
I’ve seen the republican arguments (don’t change the rules). BS. It’s more like (make sure my guy gets elected in the end regardless of the rules).
I’ve seen the democrat arguments (count every vote). BS. It’s more like (make sure my guy (gal) gets elected in the end regardless of the prules).
In any case, this is very good drama. The invective, however, is quite unnerving. Can we further demonize people? To what end will that serve?
Yes, I am completely comfortable saying that Rossi won the first two counts.
Isn’t it funny how King County was the ONLY county chosen, by the Demoncratic party, to “find” ballots to include in the recount? If she REALLY wants EVERY vote to count, than let’s look at ALL the counties and count EVERY vote, Gregoire and Rossi votes alike. EVERY vote!
I think that we have a women who couldn’t handle losing and was bound and determined to win. The election was clearly bought out, in my opinion.
I think that the rules were changed in the middle of things and that there should never be UNSECURED ballots included in a recount. Who knows who has tampered with them? How scary is that?
If Christine Gregoire would’ve won initially, I would’ve been disappointed but I would’ve accepted it, moved on and respected her leadership. Right now, I have no respect for how she has handled this election. And after all the legal battles are over and IF she is definitely our governor, I will not have any respect for her because of what she has drug the State of Washington through.
Don’t let her fool you, Folks. She claims that this is about us and our faith in the voting system, making sure that every vote counts. B.S.!!! This is about her winning. That’s it!!!
This election is a farce and I don’t have much faith in our voting system any more. It’s all very scary!!!
Thank you for taking the time to read this.
From a loyal Rossi fan!